TABLE-IMF edges up global 2026 economic outlook
Jan 19 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund nudged up its 2026 global growth forecast on Monday.
Here is a summary of projections for key economies for 2026 and 2027 and their net changes from previous IMF forecasts.
2026 estimates | January vs prior estimates | ||||||
January | October | July | April | vs October | vs July | vs April | |
World | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
United States | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
Euro Area | 1.3 | 1.2* | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Germany | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
France | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Italy | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Spain | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Japan | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
United Kingdom | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Canada | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
Emerging Markets | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
China | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
India | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Russia | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Brazil | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
Mexico | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Saudi Arabia | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Nigeria | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
South Africa | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- The Euro Area 2026 forecast from October's World Economic Outlook has been adjusted to reflect Bulgaria joining the eurozone, which occurred on January 1, 2026.
2027 estimates | January vs prior estimates | ||
January | October | vs October | |
World | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
United States | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
Euro Area | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Germany | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
France | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Italy | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
Spain | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
Japan | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
United Kingdom | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Canada | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
Emerging Markets | 4.1 | 4.2 | -0.1 |
China | 4.0 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
India | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 |
Russia | 1.0 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
Brazil | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 |
Mexico | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
Saudi Arabia | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
Nigeria | 4.1 | 4.0 | 0.1 |
South Africa | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Notes:
Figures in the annual estimates columns are annual percentage change in GDP.
Figures in the change columns are the net difference in percentage points of January's forecast vs prior forecasts.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook update January 19, 2026.
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