EXPLAINER-How a five-yearly Communist Party congress will pick Vietnam's next leaders​

By Francesco Guarascio

HANOI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Vietnam's ruling Communist Party will convene its 14th five-yearly congress on January 19-25 to select its top leader and set key targets until 2030.

HOW IS THE LEADERSHIP DECIDED?

About 1,600 delegates, representing more than 5 million party members, will name around 200 officials to the Central Committee, which then picks the 17-19 members of the Politburo, the party's most powerful body, from which the general secretary is chosen.

Current party chief To Lam, 68, has received a first nod from the party in December to retain his post, but the final decision rests with the newly elected delegates at the congress.

Shortly after the congress, the politburo will nominate the president, prime minister and speaker of the parliament, whose appointments lawmakers must confirm.

Elections for a new parliament will be held in March-May.

The party chief has in recent years gained more powers, making that position the country's most powerful job.

In his brief term, Lam launched sweeping reforms, tightened security and expanded the powers of the police ministry, which he had run for about a decade.

WILL VIETNAM CHANGE ITS MAIN POLICIES?

Vietnam’s leadership operates through collective decision-making, ensuring stability in economic and foreign policy since the Doi Moi reforms of the late 1980s, which transformed the war-torn, impoverished nation into one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

Foreign policy has centred on balancing ties with major powers - China, the U.S. and Russia - under the so-called “Bamboo Diplomacy”. Lam has dropped the phrase but kept the approach, which is expected to remain unchanged barring major geopolitical shifts.

In the economic sphere, Lam has favoured promoting private enterprise through "national champions" under the guidance of the state.

The developing country wants to reduce its reliance on overseas investment, which dominates its export-driven economy, but remains keen to attract advanced technology and capital to achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045.

WHAT ARE THE MAIN TARGETS FOR 2030?

Economic growth underpins the party’s legitimacy.

Despite global trade uncertainty, Vietnam targets annual gross domestic product growth of at least 10% in the 2026-2030 period, according to a draft policy report, which usually reflects economic targets included in a resolution at the end of the congress - far above the missed 6.5% to 7% goal for 2021-2025.

Facing unprecedented high tariffs on U.S. imports of Vietnamese goods, which may affect revenues from its largest foreign market, Vietnam is seeking to develop a new growth model where the private economy is the "driving force" but the state retains a "leading role", according to the party report.

As part of the strategy, public spending to fund infrastructure and development projects will rise, with a projected budget deficit of about 5% of GDP in the next five-year period, up from 3.1% to 3.2% in 2021-2025.

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HOW LONG HAS THE PARTY RULED VIETNAM?

Founded by Ho Chi Minh in 1930, the Communist Party took control of northern Vietnam in 1954 after French colonial rule ended.

After the end of the war with the United States and the fall of Saigon in 1975, Vietnam was reunited under the party, which has since ruled unchallenged, allowing no opposition.