FACTBOX-US holiday sales growth to be muted this year, forecasts show

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KEY FORECASTS

NUMBERS

PwC

PricewaterhouseCoopers projected the steepest year-over-year drop in U.S. holiday spending since the pandemic, primarily fueled by Gen Z shoppers pulling back amid economic uncertainty.

American shoppers are expected to spend about $1,552 per person on average, down 5.3% from last year.

Deloitte

U.S. holiday sales are expected to grow at their slowest pace since the pandemic.

A survey conducted by Deloitte showed the least optimistic outlook on economic sentiment since the firm started tracking it in 1997.

The survey also said consumers expect to reduce their spending on both retail goods and experiences, with nearly all generations and income groups planning to pull back on spending this season, except for Gen X shoppers.

Retail sales during the November 2025-January 2026 period are expected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4%, compared with a 4.2% increase last year, marking the slowest growth since the 2018-2019 season.

E-commerce sales are projected to increase between 7% and 9% during the season, compared with last year's 8% growth.

In-store sales are projected to rise between 2% and 2.2%, compared to a 3.4% growth in 2024.

Consumers are expected to spend an average of $1,595, down 10% from last year, according to a survey of 4,270 consumers conducted online by
an independent research company and fielded between August 27 and September 5.

77% of surveyed consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026, with 56% of respondents being concerned about a potential recession in the next six months.

Salesforce

The software company projects a slower growth in online spending between November 1 and December 31.

Online spending is expected to rise 2.1% to $288 billion, lower than a 4% increase in the same period last year.

Mastercard

The Mastercard Economics Institute expects U.S. holiday sales growth to moderate this year. Still, it will be driven by promotions, as consumers seek the best value for their money amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Retail sales are expected to rise 3.6% between November 1 and December 24 this year, compared to a 4.1% growth in the same period last year.

Online sales are expected to jump 7.9% this holiday season, compared to an 8.6% rise last year.

In-store sales are projected to grow 2.3%. It rose 2.8% in the 2024 holiday season.

Adobe Analytics

U.S. holiday online sales to grow at a slower pace this year, Adobe Analytics projects, as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to pressure consumer spending.

U.S. online sales to rise 5.3% to $253.4 billion between November 1 and December 31, compared with an 8.7% rise last year.

Cyber Monday sales is expected to rise 6.3% to $14.2 billion.

Consumer spending between October 7 and October 8 is expected to be $9 billion, a 6.2% increase compared with last year, as the data firm expects shoppers to kick off some of their early holiday purchases during Amazon's AMZN.O October Big Deal Days.

EY-Parthenon

Ernst & Young's consulting firm forecasts a modest rise in holiday sales this year, driven mainly by higher prices due to inflation. While higher-income households are largely unaffected by price increases, spending from middle-and lower-income consumers is expected to be constrained due to slower income growth and rising credit dependency, the firm says.

U.S. holiday retail sales in the November-December 2025 shopping season are expected to rise 2.5%, compared with a 4.2% increase last year, EY-Parthenon forecast shows.

The sales growth at 2.5% is expected to be the slowest since 2018, when it grew 2.4%.

While total sales are expected to cross $1 trillion, gains are likely to be driven by higher prices, compared with last year, when volume growth made up about 85% of sales growth.