SEC Halts Grayscale’s GDLC ETF — But Analysts Still See 90% Chance for Altcoin ETF Approvals

TradingKey – On July 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) unexpectedly paused the conversion of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into a spot ETF, announcing a formal review just one day after initially approving the move.

The reversal has introduced fresh uncertainty into the approval timeline for altcoin spot ETFs. Despite the setback, market sentiment remains optimistic. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a wave of approvals in the second half of 2025, estimating a 95% approval likelihood for SOL, XRP, and Litecoin (LTC), and a 90% chance for ADA, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Polkadot (DOT).

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Senior ETF Strategist Eric Balchunas believes the SEC is finalizing a standardized listing framework for crypto ETFs. If adopted, the new rules could be broad enough to allow spot ETFs for the top 50 tokens by market cap, streamlining the approval process and reducing reliance on the traditional 19b-4 route.