US natgas futures steady as lower output offsets rising LNG exports
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Tuesday as lower output in recent weeks offset near-record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.9 cent, or 0.4%, to settle at $2.559 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Futures for June NGM26, which will soon be the front-month contract, fell 1.7% to $2.68 per mmBtu.
In the cash market, some power and gas prices in Texas NG-WAH-WTX-SNL and California W-SP15-IDX traded in negative territory for a third straight week as mild weather limited heating and cooling demand, which was met by ample amounts of hydro and other renewable energy sources.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 110.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.8 bcfd over the past 22 days to a preliminary 12-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Tuesday as low spot prices prompted energy firms like EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to temporarily reduce production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said mostly mild weather this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 8% above normal levels during the week ended April 24 from 7% above normal during the week ended April 17. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain slightly cooler than normal through May 13. Cool weather in May does not usually generate a lot of heating demand but does knock out early spring air conditioning use.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 101.9 bcfd this week to 100.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
| Week ended April 24 Forecast | Week ended April 17 Actual | Year ago April 24 | Five-year average (2021-2025) April 24 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +81 | +103 | +105 | +63 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,144 | 2,063 | 2,026 | 1,989 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +7.8% | +7.1% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.49 | 2.55 | 3.43 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 15.50 | 15.14 | 11.48 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 16.56 | 16.55 | 12.23 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 115 | 114 | 75 | 102 | 97 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 48 | 45 | 54 | 56 | 53 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 163 | 159 | 129 | 158 | 150 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.2 | 109.2 | 109.8 | 105.3 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.9 | 115.7 | 116.1 | N/A | 107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 18.2 | 18.3 | 15.8 | 13.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 8.6 |
U.S. Residential | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.4 | 30.5 | 28.6 | 30.9 | 27.2 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.9 | 22.7 | 23.0 | 22.4 | 23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 75.5 | 74.8 | 73.5 | 73.6 | 79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 103.4 | 101.9 | 100.4 | N/A | 100.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 92 | 92 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 95 | 95 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 99 | 99 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended May 1 | Week ended Apr 24 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 14 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 36 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.72 | 2.54 | 3.41 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 2.20 | 1.96 | 2.81 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 1.27 | 1.16 | 2.63 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) | 2.04 | 1.80 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.34 | 2.25 | 3.03 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 2.25 | 2.12 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 1.87 | 1.97 | 2.94 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | -6.39 | -8.74 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO | 0.89 | 0.91 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 41.09 | 49.00 | 42.26 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West | 62.58 | 57.75 | 50.50 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 6.02 | 8.58 | 26.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 9.00 | 8.90 | 25.26 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | -0.71 | -1.77 | 9.76 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
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