WTI Price Forecast: Rallies to $98 as Trump aims to blockade Hormuz
- The oil price jumps higher as US President Trump orders the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- US-Iran talks failed as Tehran remains stuck to pursuing its nuclear ambitions.
- Saudi Arabia restores the full pumping capacity of its East-West pipeline to seven million barrels a day.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.6% higher to near $98.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The oil price rises after a warning from United States (US) President Donald Trump, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has instructed the navy to blockade "any or all ships trying to enter or leave" the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. This has further raised concerns over the global energy supply.
US President Trump’s threats to block the Hormuz came after talks between Iran and US Vice President (VP) JD Vance failed due to Tehran’s refusal to drop its nuclear ambitions.
In addition, US President Trump has also ordered the navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran”, adding that “no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas”.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the “Forces will start blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday, 10 AM ET” (14:00 GMT).
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced that it has restored the full pumping capacity of its East-West pipeline to seven million barrels a day (bpd), rehabilitating a vital link for oil exports via the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported.
WTI technical analysis
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at around $98, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $93.41. The distance from this rising EMA suggests underlying trend support remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 56.23 has eased out of overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is moderating rather than reversing.
On the downside, the first meaningful support aligns with the 20-day EMA near $93.41, where buyers would be expected to emerge on a corrective pullback while the broader uptrend stays in place. A daily close below this moving average would weaken the immediate bullish structure and expose deeper retracements, whereas holding above it keeps the door open for renewed attempts to extend the advance toward higher highs at around $106.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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