US natgas futures fall to 17-month low as storage build tops forecast, mild weather

ReutersApr 9, 2026 7:37 PM

Storage build exceeded forecasts, mild weather reduced heating demand
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints in Permian region
LSEG projects lower gas demand next week as warmer weather persists

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid 2% to a 17-month low on Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build last week and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week than previously expected.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 3. Analysts said mild weather kept gas demand for heating low last week.

The injection was slightly bigger than the 46-bcf build that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with increases of 53 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 13 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.4 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.67 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since November 8, 2024.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 44 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 53 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.37 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 111.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 2.9 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week low of 109.2 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to reductions in Wyoming and Texas. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through April 24, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 108.1 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.

	Week ended Apr 3 Actual	Week ended Mar 27 Actual	Year ago Apr 3	Five-year average (2021-2025) Apr 3
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+50	+32	+53	+13
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,911	1,861	1,822	1,824
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.8%	+2.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.73	2.72	3.43	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	15.81	15.53	11.48	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	19.49	19.86	12.23	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	112	126	176	173	164
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	55	45	33	32	29
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	167	171	209	205	193

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.9	111.1	111.2	105.9	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.9	6.8	6.8	N/A	7.5
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.9	117.9	117.9	N/A	107.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.4	2.5	2.5	N/A	2.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.6	6.0	6.1	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.9	18.6	18.8	16.5	13.1
U.S. Commercial	8.9	9.0	6.7	10.5	8.6
U.S. Residential	11.9	12.1	8.3	15.2	11.4
U.S. Power Plant	29.0	28.7	27.6	30.1	27.2
U.S. Industrial	23.2	23.4	22.4	24.0	23.3
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.4	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.2	1.9	2.2	3.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	80.8	80.9	72.6	87.5	79.0
Total U.S. Demand	108.8	108.1	100.1	N/A	100.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	95	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	98	97	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	102	101	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Apr 10	Week ended Apr 3	2025	2024	2023
Wind	16	18	11	11	10
Solar	9	8	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	2	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	35	35	40	42	41
Coal	12	13	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.78	3.01	3.41	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.26	2.62	2.81	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.30	1.27	2.63	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.08	2.30	2.69	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.38	2.48	3.03	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.62	3.05	3.15	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.13	3.11	2.94	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-4.58	-6.06	1.38	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.99	0.99	1.60	1.13	2.13

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	44.56	46.75	42.26	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	47.01	57.64	50.50	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX	13.73	16.26	26.45	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	17.06	12.75	25.26	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX	9.35	1.07	9.76	28.44	53.02

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