FACTBOX-Goldman Sachs lowers second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts on US-Iran ceasefire
April 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.
Brent crude oil prices are down over 11% so far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted. O/R
Meanwhile, ANZ in a note said that oil supply disruptions have materially tightened the global crude balance, shifting the market rapidly from early‑year surplus to a sizeable deficit.
"We see a credible risk that 1–2 mb/d (million barrel per day) of capacity may be permanently lost or limited, particularly from mature fields, constrained export systems and producers facing persistent sanctions or financing challenges," the bank said.
ANZ said the market is likely to require sustained prices above $100/bbl to ration demand and prompt stock drawdowns, if recovery stalls at this week's level, leaving deficits above 4–5 mb/d.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
|
Goldman Sachs | $83 ($85 previously) | $80 | $78 ($79 previously) | $75 | April 9, 2026 | Trims 2Q 2026 Brent, WTI forecast to $90/$87 |
ANZ | $92 | %76 | $88 | $76 | April 9, 2026 |
|
Macquarie | $89.28 | $74.50 | $82.93 | $70.50 | March 27 | If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
|
Morgan Stanley | - | $80 ($70 previously) | - | - | March 24, 2026 | Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
J.P Morgan | - | $72 | - | - | March 20, 2026 | Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered | $85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
| Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
BMI | $70 ($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
Citi | $71 ($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC | $80 ($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 |
|
| - | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Expects crude prices could rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
UBS | $72 ($62 previously) | $70 | $68($58 previously) | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction of the territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
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