ANZ Says Oil Supply Disruptions Flip Market Into Sizeable Deficit
April 9 (Reuters) - ANZ:
SAYS OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS DUE TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT HAVE MATERIALLY TIGHTENED GLOBAL CRUDE BALANCE, SHIFTING MARKET RAPIDLY FROM EARLY‑YEAR SURPLUS TO A SIZEABLE DEFICIT
SEES A CREDIBLE RISK THAT 1–2MB/D OF CAPACITY MAY BE PERMANENTLY LOST OR LIMITED
SAYS IF RECOVERY STALLS AT THIS WEEK'S LEVEL, LEAVING DEFICITS ABOVE 4–5MB/D, OIL MARKET IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE SUSTAINED PRICES ABOVE $100/BBL TO RATION DEMAND AND PROMPT STOCK DRAWDOWNS
SAYS A GRADUAL RECOVERY INTO Q2 WOULD EASE THE ACUTE SHORTAGE BUT STILL LEAVE THE MARKET UNDERSUPPLIED, CONSISTENT WITH BRENT TRADING BROADLY IN A USD90–100/BBL RANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM
ON COPPER, SAYS RESILIENT DEMAND DUE TO ENERGY TRANSITION AND DATA-CENTRE GROWTH WILL KEEP THE MARKET UNDERSUPPLIED BY 4–5%, SUPPORTING PRICES
ON ALUMINUM, SAYS WHILE HIGHER PRICES AND REGIONAL PREMIUMS HAVE BEEN TEMPERING DEMAND, ANY FURTHER PRICE RISES WOULD LIKELY ACCELERATE DEMAND RATIONING, ADDING THAT Q3 2026 FORECAST OF $3,600/T MARKS THE HIGH POINT IN THIS CYCLE
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