US natgas futures rise as daily production falls, Texas Waha prices stay negative
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a one-week high on Tuesday on a preliminary decline in daily output.
That small price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a daily decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.6 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.837 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since March 31.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 42 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 51 times so far this year.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
But on a daily basis, gas output was on track to drop by around 3.0 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary two-week low of 108.9 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Louisiana and Arkansas, according to LSEG data. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 5% above normal levels during the week ended April 3, up from 3% above normal during the week ended March 27. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through April 22.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 107.0 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 19.1 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
On a daily basis, however, feedgas to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to drop to a preliminary four-week low of 17.9 bcfd on Tuesday due primarily to a reduction in flows to U.S. LNG company Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana.
Cheniere told customers in a posting that it planned to conduct maintenance on April 7 and 8 that will reduce flows on the Creole Trail pipe, one of the pipes that supply gas to Sabine.
Week ended Apr 3 Forecast | Week ended Mar 27 Actual | Year ago Apr 3 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Apr 3 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +41 | +36 | +53 | +13 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,906 | 1,865 | 1,822 | 1,824 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.5% | +3.0% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.83 | 2.81 | 3.43 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.69 | 16.87 | 11.48 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 19.97 | 19.97 | 12.23 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 140 | 137 | 176 | 173 | 172 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 41 | 47 | 33 | 32 | 27 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 181 | 184 | 209 | 205 | 199 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.9 | 111.4 | 111.5 | 105.9 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.7 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.9 | 118.1 | 118.2 | N/A | 107.4 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | N/A | 2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.1 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.9 | 18.3 | 17.9 | 16.5 | 13.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.9 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 8.6 |
U.S. Residential | 11.9 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 15.2 | 11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.0 | 28.0 | 27.2 | 30.1 | 27.2 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.2 | 23.5 | 22.8 | 24.0 | 23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 80.8 | 80.5 | 74.7 | 87.5 | 79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.8 | 107.0 | 101.3 | N/A | 100.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 95 | 95 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 98 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 102 | 102 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Apr 10 | Week ended Apr 3 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 15 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 35 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.04 | 2.86 | 3.41 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.56 | 2.00 | 2.81 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.26 | 1.41 | 2.63 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.30 | 2.28 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.58 | 2.38 | 3.03 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 3.03 | 2.02 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.00 | 1.84 | 2.94 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -6.23 | -5.57 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 57.87 | 35.50 | 42.26 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 55.94 | 50.26 | 50.50 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 1.63 | 10.38 | 26.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 7.92 | 24.95 | 25.26 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 1.33 | 9.48 | 9.76 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
