US natgas prices steady as mild forecasts offset near record LNG export flows
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Monday as forecasts for mild weather through late April offset expectations for more demand this week than previously expected and near-record amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.4 cent, or 0.1%, to settle at $2.811 per million British thermal units.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 41 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 50 times so far this year.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 111.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, up from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 5% above normal levels during the week ended April 3, up from 3% above normal during the week ended March 27. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through April 21.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 108.1 bcfd this week to 101.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday before the long U.S. Good Friday holiday weekend.
U.S. CANNOT EXPORT MUCH MORE LNG
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 19.1 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
The war in Iran caused global gas prices TRNLTTFMc1, JKMc1 to surge by knocking out LNG supplies from Qatar, which sold about 10 bcfd of gas as LNG in 2025, representing around 20% of the world's LNG.
Gas prices in the U.S., however, have not reacted to the Iran war as elsewhere. That is because the U.S. produces all the gas it needs domestically and U.S. LNG plants were already operating at maximum capacity. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more LNG.
Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, U.S. gas NGc1 prices are down about 1% versus massive increases of 54% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 82% in Asia JKMc1.
Week ended Apr 3 Forecast | Week ended Mar 27 Actual | Year ago Apr 3 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Apr 3 |
| |
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +41 | +36 | +53 | +13 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,906 | 1,865 | 1,822 | 1,824 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.5% | +3.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 3.43 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.87 | 16.51 | 11.48 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 19.97 | 19.83 | 12.23 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 137 | 148 | 176 | 173 | 176 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 47 | 38 | 33 | 32 | 26 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 184 | 186 | 209 | 205 | 202 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.9 | 111.4 | 111.3 | 105.9 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | N/A | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.9 | 118.0 | 118.1 | N/A | 107.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.5 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.7 | 16.5 | 13.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 8.9 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 8.6 |
U.S. Residential | 11.9 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 15.2 | 11.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.0 | 28.3 | 28.2 | 30.1 | 27.2 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.2 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 24.0 | 23.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 80.8 | 80.9 | 74.4 | 87.5 | 79.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.8 | 108.1 | 101.9 | N/A | 100.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 95 | 96 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 100 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 102 | 103 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
| Week ended Apr 10 | Week ended Apr 3 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 17 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 12 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.86 | 2.99 | 3.41 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.00 | 2.29 | 2.81 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.41 | 1.54 | 2.63 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.28 | 2.08 | 2.69 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.38 | 2.38 | 3.03 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.02 | 2.55 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.84 | 1.97 | 2.94 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -5.57 | -3.88 | 1.38 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 35.50 | 47.37 | 42.26 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 50.26 | 54.72 | 50.50 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 10.38 | 11.45 | 26.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 24.95 | 9.69 | 25.26 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 9.48 | 3.94 | 9.76 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
