US natural gas futures fall to one-month low
By Sarah Qureshi
March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Monday and hit a one-month low, as profit taking kicked in, while higher output also added pressure.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 15.1 cents, or 5%, to $2.87 per million British thermal units after touching its lowest level since February 27 earlier in the session. On Friday, prices scaled its highest level since March 23.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states stood at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG.
"The market's looking forward into the shoulder month period, which is a low demand period for April and parts of May," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial, adding that the market will shift its focus to storage injections.
"Prices could continue to trade a little bit below $3," he added.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, at 108.6 bcfd this week and 110.3 bcfd next week.
Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said they "believe that a significant decline in production or any unexpected supply disruption could prompt an outsized price response. And although export activity has ramped up in recent days, supportive impact has been largely offset by the increased output."
Iran described U.S. proposals to end a month of war in the Middle East as "unrealistic, illogical and excessive" and unleashed more missiles on Israel. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump issued another warning to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway used for shipping a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, or risk U.S. attacks on its energy infrastructure.
| Week ended Mar 27 Forecasts | Week ended Mar 20 Actual | Year ago Mar 20 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 20 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +18 | -54 | +33 | -21 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,847 | 1,829 | 1,739 | 1,815 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +2.0% | +0.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.02 | 2.99 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.73 | 17.68 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 20.40 | 20.50 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 179 | 179 | 176 | 228 | 219 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 36 | 36 | 19 | 11 | 17 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 215 | 215 | 195 | 239 | 236 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 110.0 | 110.1 | 106.8 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 116.6 | 117.0 | 117.7 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 5.4 | 6.5 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.7 | 19.2 | 18.8 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 13.9 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.3 | 29.0 | 28.6 | 29.6 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.0 | 80.2 | 79.8 | 84.9 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 110.3 | 108.6 | 109.0 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 98 | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 104 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 104 | 106 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 27 | Week ended Mar 20 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 16 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 12 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.99 | 2.99 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.20 | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.58 | 1.64 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.13 | 2.21 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.42 | 2.56 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.04 | -2.61 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.71 | 1.8 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 34.44 | 34.44 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 58.5 | 50.12 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 14.14 | 10.85 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 31.79 | 26.8 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 18.07 | 14.15 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
