FACTBOX-Analysts hike oil price outlooks as Iran conflict continues
March 27 (Reuters) - Major brokerages have raised their 2026 average oil price forecasts as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove oil prices sharply higher this month.
Macquarie on Friday raised its fiscal year 2026 oil price forecast, projecting West Texas Intermediate crude would average approximately $83 per barrel, up from the previously estimated $58 per barrel, citing significant supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $107.15 a barrel by 2113 GMT on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $93.79. O/R
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
|
Macquarie | $89.28 | $74.50 | $82.93 | $70.50 | March 27 | If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200 |
Morgan Stanley | - | $80 ($70 previously) | - | - | March 24, 2026 | Expects Brent prices to remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026 |
Goldman Sachs | $85 ($77 previously) | $80 ($71 previously) | $79 ($72 previously) | $75 ($67 previously) | March 22, 2026 | Expect Brent to average $110/bbl in March and April |
J.P Morgan | - | $72 | - | - | March 20, 2026 | Expects Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26 |
Standard Chartered | $85.50 ($70 previously) |
|
|
|
| Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26 |
BofA | $77.50 ($61 previously) | $66 ($62 previously) | - | $61 ($59 previously) | March 16, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in Q2'26, but average $76/bbl in Q3'26 |
Barclays | $85 (from $65 previously) The forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks | - | - | - | March 13, 2026 | But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, says Brent could climb to $100/bbl |
ANZ | - | - | - | - | March 12, 2026 | Raises Brent forecast for Q1'26 to $100/bbl from $90/bbl |
BMI | $70 ($67 previously) | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively. |
Citi | $71 ($63 previously) | $64 | $68($60 previously) | $61 | March 11, 2026 | Anticipates Brent averaging $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3’26 |
HSBC | $80 ($65 previously) | $70($66 previously) | $76($61 previously) | $67($63 previously) | March 10, 2026 |
|
- | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Expects crude prices could rise to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks | |
UBS | $72 ($62 previously) | $70 | $68($58 previously) | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction of the territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
