US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on a recent drop in daily output and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.2 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $3.065 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 29 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 4.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary six-week low of 106.7 bcfd on Wednesday, due in part to reductions in North Dakota, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, according to LSEG data. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
The North Dakota reduction was likely due to freezing pipes and wells earlier this week when overnight lows in Bismarck plunged to minus 6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 21 degrees Celsius) on Monday, according to AccuWeather.
Those North Dakota pipes were likely already thawing with high temperatures expected to reach the 60s to 70s F in Bismarck on Wednesday-Saturday, according to the weather forecaster's projections.
RECORD HEAT IN LOS ANGELES
Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain low across most of the country through April 2, but noted extreme heat in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.
High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels near 98 F on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather. That compares with average highs of around 70 F in the City of Angels at this time of year.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 123.4 bcfd this week to 113.2 bcfd next. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid from a record 18.7 bcfd in February to 18.4 bcfd so far in March.
That reduction was due in part to the outage of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas on Monday and pipeline work expected to reduce feedgas to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana on Wednesday and Thursday.
Week ended Mar 13 Forecast | Week ended Mar 6 Actual | Year ago Mar 13 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13 |
| |
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +31 | -38 | -1 | -29 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,879 | 1,848 | 1,706 | 1,836 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +2.3% | -0.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.95 | 3.03 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.84 | 17.47 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 19.41 | 19.27 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 221 | 238 | 204 | 254 | 252 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 36 | 36 | 20 | 17 | 14 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 257 | 274 | 224 | 271 | 266 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
|
|
|
|
|
| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.0 | 109.4 | 109.7 | 106.4 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.4 | 7.7 | 8.0 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.4 | 117.1 | 117.7 | N/A | 108.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.5 | 18.3 | 16.1 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.8 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 13.9 | 19.7 | 14.6 | 16.3 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 28.5 | 29.4 | 28.5 | 28.2 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 24.7 | 23.5 | 23.9 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 83.3 | 95.0 | 84.8 | 86.8 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 112.8 | 123.4 | 113.2 | N/A | 118.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
N/A = Not Available |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 101 | 100 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 101 | 99 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 105 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
|
|
|
|
|
| Week ended Mar 20 | Week ended Mar 13 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 17 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 34 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.14 | 3.03 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.87 | 3.05 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.58 | 1.63 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.60 | 2.78 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.83 | 2.99 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 4.50 | 4.83 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.23 | 1.98 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -3.43 | -3.80 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
|
|
|
|
|
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 67.20 | 54.90 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 100.31 | 99.04 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia W-MIDCP-IDX | 18.28 | 18.60 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 38.59 | 33.25 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 21.21 | 22.94 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
