US natural gas futures slide 3% as mild March curbs demand

ReutersMar 13, 2026 6:49 PM

Mild weather reduces US natural gas demand, affecting futures prices
Pipeline constraints keep Waha Hub prices negative for 26 days
US LNG exports decrease despite global price surge due to Iran conflict

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Friday on forecasts for mostly mild weather through the rest of March, which should limit heating demand and allow utilities to add gas into storage.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.2 cents, or 3.2%, to settle at $3.131 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since February 13 for a second day in a row.

For the week, the front-month was down about 2% after gaining about 11% last week.

In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 26 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.

Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to take the somewhat unusual step of injecting gas into storage during the winter heating season in March, boosting stockpiles to near normal levels for the week ended March 13, up from around 1% below normal for the week ended March 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly near normal through March 28 with colder weather expected next week than this week. Next week's cold will likely result in an increase in heating demand, forcing some utilities to again pull gas from storage.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 112.7 bcfd this week to 124.6 bcfd next week before dropping to 116.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to 18.3 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.

Prices in the U.S. have reacted to the Iran war, but not by nearly as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could before the war. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the U.S. cannot export much more gas.

Since the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, U.S. gas prices have climbed about 10% versus around 58% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 51% in Asia JKMc1.

Around the world, gas was trading near $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $16 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Mar 13 Forecast	Week ended Mar 6 Actual	Year ago Mar 13	Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+8	-38	-1	-29
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	1,856	1,848	1,706	1,836
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+0.1%	-0.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.29	3.23	4.14	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	16.60	16.98	13.21	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	16.09	15.98	13.50	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	262	256	229	283	274
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	33	33	11	15	12
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	295	289	240	298	286

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.8	110.1	109.5	106.1	99.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.3	7.4	8.1	N/A	8.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.1	117.4	117.6	N/A	108.0

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.7	4.2	4.1	N/A	3.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.8	6.9	6.9	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.2	18.3	19.0	15.5	13.2
U.S. Commercial	12.5	9.8	13.4	10.9	12.1
U.S. Residential	18.9	13.8	20.3	16.6	18.3
U.S. Power Plant	31.8	28.6	28.1	30.4	31.8
U.S. Industrial	24.1	23.3	24.8	23.7	24.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.5	2.2	2.5	2.5	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	95.4	83.3	94.7	89.6	96.3
Total U.S. Demand	124.1	112.7	124.6	N/A	118.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	100	99	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	100	98	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	104	103	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Mar 13	Week ended Mar 6	2025	2024	2023
Wind	18	13	11	11	10
Solar	7	7	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	34	38	40	42	41
Coal	13	15	18	16	17
Nuclear	20	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.27	3.15	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.55	2.56	3.40	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.67	1.68	3.52	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.65	2.70	3.29	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.84	2.75	3.53	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.21	2.26	3.74	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.34	2.23	3.53	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-4.75	-6.34	0.78	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.32	1.33	1.47	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	45.18	42.75	50.19	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	55.73	58.77	48.35	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	9.24	9.26	34.51	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	14.08	15.79	23.31	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	8.76	13.06	16.63	28.44	53.02

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