EXCLUSIVE-With Iran war exit elusive, Trump aides vie to affect outcome

By Nandita Bose, Matt Spetalnick and Humeyra Pamuk

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - A complex tug-of-war inside the White House is driving U.S. President Donald Trump's shifting public statements on the course of the Iran war, as aides debate when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East.

Some officials and advisers are warning Trump that surging gasoline prices could exact a political cost from the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, while some others are pressing him to maintain the offensive against the Islamic Republic, according to interviews with a Trump adviser and others close to the deliberations.

Their observations offer a previously unreported glimpse inside White House decision-making as it adjusts its approach to the biggest U.S. military operation since the 2003 Iraq war.

The behind-the-scenes maneuvering underscores the high stakes Trump, who returned to office last year promising to avoid "stupid" military interventions, faces nearly two weeks after plunging the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets and disrupted the international oil trade.

The jockeying for Trump's ear is a feature of his presidency, but this time the consequences are a matter of war and peace.

Shifting from the sweeping goals he framed in launching the war on February 28, Trump in recent days has emphasized that he views the conflict as a limited campaign whose military objectives have mostly been met.

But the message remains unclear to many, including the energy markets, which have lurched in both directions in response to Trump's statements.

He told a campaign-style rally in Kentucky on Wednesday that "we won" the war, then abruptly pivoted: "We don't want to leave early, do we? We've got to finish the job."

THE VOICES IN TRUMP'S EAR

Economic advisers and officials, including from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, have warned Trump that an oil shock and rising gasoline prices could quickly erode already weak domestic support for the war, said the adviser and two others close to the deliberations, speaking on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions.

Political advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles and her deputy James Blair, are making similar arguments, focusing on the political fallout from higher gas prices and urging Trump to define victory narrowly and signal the operation is limited and nearly finished, the sources said.

More hawkish voices urging Trump to sustain military pressure on Iran include Republican lawmakers such as U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, and media commentators such as Mark Levin, according to people familiar with the matter.

They argue the U.S. must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and respond forcefully to attacks on American troops and shipping.

A third force comes from Trump’s populist base and figures such as strategist Steve Bannon and right-wing television personality Tucker Carlson, who have both publicly and privately been pressing him and his top aides to avoid getting dragged into another prolonged Middle East conflict.

"He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited," the Trump adviser said.

Asked for comment, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: "This story is based on gossip and speculation from anonymous sources who aren’t even in the room for any discussions with President Trump.

"The President is known for being a good listener and seeking the opinions of many people, but ultimately everyone knows he’s the final decision maker and his own best messenger."

Other people named for their roles in the deliberations did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MESSAGE

While Trump has offered sometimes confusing statements on the Iran war, he has peppered his public remarks this week with references to the campaign being a "short-term excursion."

One person close to the deliberations said that phrase came up during a White House briefing with aides that he attended before Trump first used the term at a gathering of Republican lawmakers in Miami on Monday.

The source also said Trump was given a messaging memo in preparation for his speech to lawmakers that emphasized signaling the war would be short and that the U.S. did not seek an open-ended conflict.

In taking America to war, Trump offered little explanation, and the administration's stated war aims have ranged from thwarting an imminent attack by Iran to crippling its nuclear program to replacing its government.

As he seeks an exit from an unpopular conflict, Trump is trying to juggle competing narratives increasingly undercut by Iran's continued attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and neighboring states.

Top political aides and economic advisers, whose warnings before the war of the potential economic shock were largely ignored, appear to have played a major role in pushing Trump’s efforts to reassure skittish markets and contain rising oil and gas prices.

Some White House aides are discussing an endgame that would see Trump declaring that military objectives have been met, followed by a shift to sanctions, deterrence, and negotiations, according to two people familiar with the matter. Not all of the aides, however, are on board with this approach, they said.

Wave after wave of U.S. and Israeli air strikes have killed top Iranian leaders among some 2,000 people overall - some as far away as Lebanon - devastated its ballistic missile arsenal, sunk much of its navy and degraded its ability to support armed proxies around the Middle East.

Trump has said he will decide when to end the campaign. He and his aides say they are far ahead of the four- to six-week timeframe Trump initially announced.

For their part, Iran's rulers will claim victory, analysts say, for simply surviving the U.S.-Israeli onslaught, especially after demonstrating their ability to fight back and inflict damage on Israel, the U.S. and its allies.

VENEZUELA MISCALCULATION

Critical to the war's final trajectory will be the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world's oil shipments, which normally traverses the narrow waterway, has come to a near-standstill. Iran in recent days has struck tankers in Iraqi waters and other ships near the strait.

If Iran's stranglehold on the waterway pushes U.S. gas prices high enough, that could increase political pressure on Trump to end the campaign. His Republican Party is defending narrow majorities in Congress in November's midterm elections.

So far, most members of his "Make America Great Again" movement have largely stayed with him on Iran, despite criticism from some supporters opposed to military interventions.

Trump has recently refrained from pushing the idea that the war seeks to topple the government in Tehran. U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is not at risk of collapse anytime soon, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

At least some of the confusion over the war's trajectory appears rooted in the quick U.S. military success in Venezuela.

Since the start of the war, some aides have struggled to convince Trump that the Iran campaign was unlikely to unfold in the same way as the January 3 raid that captured President Nicolas Maduro, according to another source familiar with the administration’s thinking.

That operation opened the way for Trump to coerce former Maduro loyalists into giving him considerable sway over the country's vast oil reserves – without requiring extended U.S. military action.

Iran, by contrast, has proved a much tougher, better-armed foe with an entrenched clerical and security establishment.

A source familiar with U.S. intelligence reports rejected claims by Trump aides that Iran had been within weeks of being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Trump said last June that U.S.-Israeli bombing had "obliterated" its nuclear program.

Most of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to have been buried by the June strikes, meaning the material potentially could be retrieved and purified to bomb grade. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons.