TECHNICALS-$200 crude oil no joke; jet fuel, gas oil and fuel oil surge higher

SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - The Iran war has pushed crude oil rapidly towards its 2022 high, and chart patterns across the broader energy complex suggest crude's rally is far from isolated.

When Singapore Jet fuel JETSGSWMc1, Fuel oil CS380 FO380SGSWMc1, London gas oil LGOc1, NYMEX LNG Japan/Korean marker JKMc1 are plotted alongside Brent crude LCOc1, their price movements appear strikingly similar.

A study on Brent oil's long-term chart suggests huge upside potential. The current rise might be riding on a powerful wave C, which is capable of travelling to $181.66 per barrel.

When Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's military command, warned Washington to "get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel" on March 11, 2026, he was probably not joking. That target is technically supported.

Considering that Jet fuel, gas oil and fuel oil are refined from crude oil, it is logical to assume that these refined products could also surge.

A Fibonacci projection analysis on Singapore jet fuel JETSGSWMc1 points to a stunning high of $328.71 per barrel and Singapore Fuel oil CS380 FO380SGSWMc1 $145.75 per ton.

As for London gas oil LGOc1, the bullish target is around $1,698 per metric ton. All these targets are the 100% projection levels.

Take note that the upside may not be limited to the calculated levels, as a wave C is generally capable of extending far above the 100% projection level.

The NYMEX LNG Japan/Korean marker JKMc1 seems to have its own rhythm of chart formation. Still far from its 2022 high, the market has indeed surged a lot above its 2024 low.

A Fibonacci ratio analysis reveals that the contract faces a strong resistance of $17 MMBTU, jointly provided by the 14.6% retracement of the downtrend from $70 and the 100% projection level of a wave C.

A break above this barrier looks unlikely, as the wave could be completed around this level. More likely is a pause of the rise or a correction towards the $14 to $15 range.

That means the LNG price may temporarily diverge with that of crude oil and other refined products analysed above. A break above $17, however, could trigger a substantial gain to $22.

Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial, or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.