FACTBOX-Analysts reassess oil price estimates as Iran conflict disrupts markets
March 13 (Reuters) - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, have revised their average oil price forecasts for 2026 as the war in Iran approached the two‑week mark on Friday.
Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated in the near term as they assess the impact of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for more than 20% of global oil flows. However, they broadly anticipate prices stabilizing later in the year.
Brent futures LCOc1 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 rose to their highest since June 2022 this week, and were headed for more than 10% and 7% weekly rises respectively. O/R
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed on Thursday to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel, amid a Middle East conflict that continues to disrupt millions of lives and rattle energy and financial markets worldwide.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | Price Targets | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
| |
Goldman Sachs | $77 | $71 | $72 | $67 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $75/bbl and $71/bbl over the next three and twelve months, respectively. |
BMI | $70 | $70 | $68 | $68 | March 12, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in 3Q’26 and 4Q'26, respectively. |
Citi | $71 | $64 | $68 | $61 | March 11, 2026 | See's Brent averaging $75/bbl in 1Q'26, $78/bbl in 2Q'26, and $68/bbl in 3Q’26 |
BofA | $78 | $65 | $73 | $61 | March 10, 2026 | Expects Brent to average $80/bbl in 2Q'26, but average $65/bbl again in 2027 as the pre-war surplus re-emerges |
HSBC | $80 | $70 | $76 | $67 | March 10, 2026 | |
Macquarie | - | - | - | - | March 6, 2026 | Sees crude prices potentially rising to $150/bbl or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks |
UBS | $72 | $70 | $68 | $66 | March 4, 2026 | Expects prices to move towards >$100/bbl and into more severe demand destruction territory of $120+/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted |
