US natgas futures rise ahead of storage report as Iran conflict drives demand
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a fresh four-week high on Thursday, following a rise in global energy prices due to the Iran war and as colder weather boosted heating demand by more than previously expected this week.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, to $2.230 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since February 13 for a second day in a row.
That small price increase came despite a federal storage report expected to show energy firms pulled less gas out of storage than usual to heat homes and businesses during mild weather last week.
Energy analysts forecast energy firms pulled 43 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended March 6.
That withdrawal compares with declines of 64 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average decrease of 64 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
NEGATIVE WAHA
In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 25 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin, prompting some analysts to project some energy firms could start reducing gas production.
Gas output in the Permian has hit record highs every year since around 2013, according to EIA data going back to 2009, reaching 27.7 bcfd in 2025. Output in the basin has climbed by 12% a year on average over the past five years (2021-2025). That growth, however, will slow to 4% a year in 2026 and 2027, according to EIA's latest estimates.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 34 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative 37 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to leave more gas in storage than usual for this time of year, which should cut stockpiles to around 1% below normal for the week ended March 6 from around 2% below normal for the week ended February 27. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly near normal through March 27, with more cold expected next week than this week.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 112.6 bcfd this week to 125.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
| Week ended Mar 6 Forecast | Week ended Feb 27 Actual | Year ago Mar 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 6 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -43 | -132 | -64 | -64 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,843 | 1,886 | 1,707 | 1,865 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -1.2% | -2.2% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.18 | 3.21 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 17.35 | 16.64 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 15.98 | 15.92 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 256 | 246 | 229 | 283 | 278 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 33 | 30 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 289 | 276 | 240 | 298 | 289 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.8 | 109.9 | 109.7 | 106.1 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.3 | 7.3 | 8.3 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 118.1 | 117.2 | 118.0 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.8 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.2 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 15.5 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 12.5 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 18.9 | 13.7 | 20.4 | 16.6 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.8 | 28.5 | 28.4 | 30.4 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.1 | 23.3 | 24.9 | 23.7 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 95.4 | 83.1 | 95.3 | 89.6 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 124.1 | 112.6 | 125.0 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 99 | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 103 | 106 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 13 | Week ended Mar 6 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 18 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.15 | 3.08 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.56 | 2.19 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.68 | 1.65 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.70 | 2.15 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.75 | 2.66 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.26 | 2.38 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.23 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -6.34 | -5.40 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.33 | 1.24 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 42.75 | 42.00 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 58.77 | 55.93 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 9.26 | 11.03 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 15.79 | 11.04 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 13.06 | 6.46 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
