US forecaster sees La Niña ending soon, El Niño likely by mid-2026

March 11 (Reuters) - La Niña is expected to shift to El Nino-Southern Oscillation‑neutral conditions in the coming month, with neutral conditions with 55% chances through the May–July period, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

The U.S. weather forecaster added that El Nino has a 62% chance of developing between June and August 2026 and is expected to continue through at least the end of 2026.

"The increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds," the CPC added.

• La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

• La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

• "ENSO is transitioning to neutral, but weak La Nina conditions persist," said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.

• "A cooling of water temperatures off western Indonesia, in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean, will contribute to drier conditions this spring and summer."

• Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather, said neutral conditions are expected through spring and early summer, with El Niño possibly developing later and this should bring wetter conditions in Argentina and drier weather in central Brazil.

• "(El Nino's) impact on global agriculture will be largely determined by the associated weather patterns that El Nino brings. The emergence of El Nino poses a downside risk to several commodities," said Matthew Biggin, senior analyst at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.

• Japan's weather bureau said Tuesday there was a 60% chance of El Niño emerging this summer.

• Indonesia expects a longer and more severe dry season in 2026, beginning in April and peaking in August, its meteorology agency said, raising the likelihood of drought.