US natgas futures rise 3%, tracking global energy price gains
By Anjana Anil
March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 3% on Wednesday as global energy prices climbed, with traders closely monitoring the Middle East conflict to gauge supply disruptions and its impact on the market.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 10.4 cents higher, or 3.4%, to $3.12 per million British thermal units at 10:40 a.m. ET. Prices had risen to a more than one-month high on Monday.
"In the medium term, we see support from increasing domestic demand for data-centre power generation, heating/cooling and export demand for LNG, which should ramp up in the coming months with the first cargoes from Golden Pass LNG," analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note.
"European gas prices have been much more sensitive to U.S.-Iran developments, although we still expect Europe to source its gas predominantly from the U.S. this summer to replenish tight storage inventories."
U.S. prices have moved in response to the Iran war, but not nearly as sharply as in Europe or Asia. The U.S. produces enough gas to cover its own demand, limiting the domestic shock.
However, it has little spare capacity to quickly lift output of LNG and offset lost supply after Qatar halted production due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to Reuters calculations and industry analysts.
Since the U.S. and Israel started air strikes on Iran on February 28 , U.S. gas prices have gained about 9% versus around 52% in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and 48% in Asia JKMc1.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose marginally to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
U.S. energy firms likely pulled an above-normal 121 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended February 27, according to the average estimate in a Reuters poll released last week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 111.8 bcfd this week to 124.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants slipped to 18.2 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
Benchmark European and British wholesale gas prices rose on Wednesday morning after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over LNG supply. NG/EU
| Week ended Mar 6 Forecast | Week ended Feb 27 Actual | Year ago Mar 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Mar 6 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -53 | -132 | -64 | -64 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,833 | 1,886 | 1,707 | 1,865 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -1.7% | -2.2% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.12 | 3.13 | 4.14 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 16.66 | 16.47 | 13.21 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 15.92 | 16.23 | 13.50 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 250 | 246 | 241 | 360 | 360 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 31 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 281 | 276 | 251 | 369 | 366 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.8 | 109.9 | 109.9 | 106.1 | 99.9 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.3 | 7.4 | 8.5 | N/A | 8.0 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 118.1 | 117.3 | 118.3 | N/A | 108.0 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.2 | N/A | 3.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.2 | 18.3 | 18.7 | 15.5 | 13.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 12.5 | 9.6 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 12.1 |
U.S. Residential | 18.9 | 13.4 | 20.2 | 16.6 | 18.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.7 | 28.4 | 28.7 | 30.4 | 31.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.1 | 23.2 | 24.9 | 23.7 | 24.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 95.3 | 82.4 | 95.3 | 89.6 | 96.3 |
Total U.S. Demand | 124.0 | 111.8 | 124.9 | N/A | 118.7 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 98 | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 102 | 106 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Mar 13 | Week ended Mar 6 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Wind | 18 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 34 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 13 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.08 | 3.25 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.19 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.65 | 1.78 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.15 | 2.20 | 3.29 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.66 | 2.81 | 3.53 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.38 | 2.44 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.26 | 2.39 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -5.40 | -7.15 | 0.78 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.69 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 42.00 | 39.00 | 50.19 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 55.93 | 46.43 | 48.35 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 11.03 | 17.43 | 34.51 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 11.04 | 7.91 | 23.31 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 6.46 | 7.85 | 16.63 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
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