US CPI: Energy shock complicates Fed path – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s US economists flag February CPI as a key release for Federal Reserve expectations after the recent Oil shock delayed rate-cut pricing. They anticipate tariff-related strength in core goods and higher energy costs lifting headline inflation, while core CPI is seen steady. The print will help shape market views on policy beyond next week’s widely expected Fed hold.

Inflation print to guide rate expectations

"US data remains firmly in focus today with the release of the February CPI report."

"This is a key print, as the recent oil shock has pushed back market expectations for the next Fed rate cut."

"While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, today’s data will help shape expectations for subsequent decisions."

"Our US economists are watching for tariff related strength in core goods, particularly apparel, alongside recent gains in wholesale used car prices."

"Overall, they expect headline CPI to rise by +0.27%, boosted by a +1.0% increase in energy prices, keeping the year-on-year rate at +2.4%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)