TECHNICALS-US oil to retest $81.95; upside opens toward $100

SINGAPORE, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. oil CLc1 is expected to retest a resistance at $81.95 per barrel, a break above could lead to a gain into the $83.23 to $84.03 range.

A five-wave cycle from $63.61 looks incomplete. The fifth wave labelled 5 is unfolding. It consists of five smaller waves.

The structure of these smaller waves indicate an extended wave 5, which means it is going be much explosive and longer than the preceding wave 3 from $63.61 to about $77.81.

Indeed, a pennant from $63.61 points at a much higher target of $86.14. Bulls are seen to have steadily and systematically defeated bears, as two main corrections from $75.33 and $77.98 adopted a sideways mode, shaped into either wedge or triangle.

Support is at $77.81, a break below may trigger a drop to $76.53. On the daily chart, the contract has broken a long-term trendline falling from $130.51. The break signals a reversal of the downtrend from this level.

A double-bottom around the May 2025 low of $55.30 has been confirmed, indicating a target at $100. A realistic target is $83.92, the 38.2% retracement on the fall from $130.51.

Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her professionals or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.