US natgas futures hit six-month low on milder weather forecasts

ReutersFeb 26, 2026 2:33 PM

Milder weather forecasts reduce heating demand, impacting natural gas prices
Waha Hub prices in Texas remain negative due to pipeline constraints
US gas output rises, but demand expected to decrease next week

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a six-month low on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents, or 2.6%, to $2.794 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since August 26.

A federal government report later on Thursday is expected to show energy firms pulled a much lower-than-normal 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 20 when the weather was also mild, keeping heating demand low.

There was a decline of 252 bcf during the same week last year, with the five-year (2021-2025) average withdrawal at 168 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained negative for a record 15th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 24 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 45 cents per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

In Northern California, meanwhile, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL fell to $1.64 per mmBtu, its lowest level since May 2024. That price compares with an average of $2.33 so far in 2026, $3.42 in 2025, and $5.47 over the past five years (2021-2025).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has climbed to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Output hit a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

As utilities in the U.S. Northeast continued to restore power following a winter storm earlier this week, meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 13.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 138.0 bcfd this week to 128.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

There was about 6% less gas in storage than usual during the week ended February 13. Energy analysts expect the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report on Thursday to show the deficit dropped to around 1% below normal during the week ended February 20. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to beat December's monthly record of 18.5 bcfd.

	Week ended Feb 20 Forecast	Week ended Feb 13 Actual	Year ago Feb 20	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 20
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-55	-144	-252	-168
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,015	2,070	1,877	2,025
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-0.5%	-5.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.79	2.87	3.74	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.46	10.82	15.28	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.60	10.52	14.41	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	245	272	302	348	336
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	23	22	5	10	7
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	268	294	307	358	343

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.3	108.7	108.7	104.2	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.1	9.5	9.1	N/A	9.0
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.4	118.2	117.7	N/A	106.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	4.0	4.0	N/A	3.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.2	6.4	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	18.7	18.5	15.9	12.6
U.S. Commercial	13.3	16.1	13.6	13.1	14.6
U.S. Residential	21.4	26.2	21.0	20.5	24.0
U.S. Power Plant	29.8	33.0	31.7	31.9	31.8
U.S. Industrial	24.0	25.3	24.6	24.4	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.6	2.9	2.6	2.6	4.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	96.6	109.0	99.1	98.0	105.2
Total U.S. Demand	126.0	138.0	128.0	N/A	126.7

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	91	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	91	91	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	96	96	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 27	Week ended Feb 20	2025	2024	2023
Wind	14	14	11	11	10
Solar	6	5	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	40	42	41
Coal	17	16	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	20	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.02	2.99	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.06	2.82	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	1.64	1.73	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.53	2.48	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.69	2.76	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	6.20	6.09	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.25	2.39	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-1.78	-3.03	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.09	1.18	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	62.39	78.33	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	48.01	44.30	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	9.62	9.73	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	9.95	5.92	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	9.65	7.58	25.19	28.44	53.02

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