US natural gas futures fall more than 8% on milder forecasts

ReutersFeb 9, 2026 7:59 PM

By Anjana Anil

Feb 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell by more than 8% on Monday on forecasts for milder weather than previously expected for the rest of the month, erasing the previous session's gains.

Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 28.4 cents, or 8.3%, to $3.138 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

On Friday, the contract hit a session high of $3.659 per mmBtu.

"The strong gas price advance through most of last week was obviously reversed by continued above normal temperature forecasts that have been extended into the last week of this month," Ritterbusch and associates said in a note.

Meteorologists forecast warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through February 23, with Heating Degree Days falling from 374 on Friday to 358 on Monday. HDDs measure energy demand to heat buildings.

Colder weather earlier in the winter in the U.S. drove heavy withdrawals from underground storage, but forecasts now point to easing demand. A Reuters poll shows U.S. utilities likely withdrew 249 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas in the week ended February 6.

This compares to a record 360 bcf pulled out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, putting stockpiles on track to drop from around 5% above normal during the week ended January 23 to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.99 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 142.5 bcfd this week to 130 bcfd next week.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

"While we continue to cite an expected upswing in export activity to a record pace in the coming weeks/months, recent patterns strongly suggest that this increase in demand could be countered by stronger production now that well freeze-offs are being largely taken off the table as winter begins to wind down," Ritterbusch added.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices also fell on Monday morning on forecasts for milder temperatures. NG/EU

	Week ended Feb 6 Forecast	Week ended Jan 30 Actual	Year ago Feb 6	Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-249	-360	-111	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,214	2,463	2,311	2,344
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-5.5%	-1.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.187	3.422	-	-	-
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.39	12.10	-	-	-
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.105	11.105	-	-	-


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	358	374	340	395	397
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	6	4	5	7	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	364	378	345	402	402

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.1	107.9	108.4	N/A	N/A
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.9	9.7	9.0	N/A	N/A
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	N/A	N/A
Total U.S. Supply	118.1	117.7	117.3	N/A	N/A

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.5	3.4	N/A	N/A
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	6.4	6.5	N/A	N/A
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.6	18.2	N/A	N/A
U.S. Commercial	20.9	17.5	14.3	N/A	N/A
U.S. Residential	35.7	28.9	23.8	N/A	N/A
U.S. Power Plant	39.6	33.6	31.3	N/A	N/A
U.S. Industrial	26.8	25.5	24.3	N/A	N/A
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.4	N/A	N/A
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.5	3.0	2.7	N/A	N/A
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	N/A	N/A
Total U.S. Consumption	131.9	113.9	101.9	N/A	N/A
Total U.S. Demand	159.8	142.5	130.0	N/A	N/A

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	93	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	97	99	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Feb 6	Week ended Jan 30	2025	2024	2023
Wind	9	8	11	11	10
Solar	4	4	6	5	4
Hydro	5	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	1	2	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	39	40	42	41
Coal	22	22	18	16	17
Nuclear	18	17	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	4.37	5.28	4.19	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	17.42	8.32	4.90	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.29	2.10	3.78	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.8	3.56	4.03	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.97	3.69	4.19	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	36.55	18.71	13.65	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.94	2.77	4.19	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.98	-0.10	2.76	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.64	1.31	1.53	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	305.43	199.54	134.58	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	218.96	131.58	53.89	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	21.71	25.93	67.87	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	23.12	22.06	29.05	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	27.28	23.02	25.19	28.44	53.02

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