FACTBOX-Morgan Stanley raises near-term Brent forecasts, WFII lowers prediction

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has raised its near-term Brent forecasts, saying a geopolitical risk premium is likely to persist, but still expects prices below $60 per barrel later this year, it said in a note dated Tuesday.

The bank raised its Brent forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $62.5 per barrel from $57.5/bbl. It also raised its second-quarter forecast to $57.5/bbl from $55/bbl, saying risks due to global conflicts could last longer.

However, it left its Brent forecasts for the second half of 2026 and both halves of 2027 unchanged, with the bank seeing higher inventories in key pricing locations weighing on prices, resulting in a contango market structure later this year.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) cut its year-end crude oil price forecasts, saying it now expects Brent to finish the year at $65–$75 a barrel, down from its previous $70–$80 range.

WFII also lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $60–$70 a barrel from $65–$75, citing excess global supply that is likely to limit upside in prices.

"We believe headwinds of excess global supply and spare production capacity will likely overshadow the potential impacts from demand growth and keep a lid on prices," WFII said in a note on Wednesday.

indicates end-of-period forecasts

# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision

For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL