JP Morgan Sees India Trimming Sanctioned Counterparties While Sustaining Russian Oil Flows

Feb 4 (Reuters) - JP MORGAN:

• IN ITS BASE CASE SAYS INDIA WILL LARGELY EXIT SANCTIONED COUNTERPARTIES BUT CONTINUE IMPORTING RUSSIAN CRUDE AT AROUND 0.8–1.0 MBD, ACCOUNTING FOR 17–21% OF TOTAL CRUDE IMPORTS

• BELIEVES A FULL EXIT REMAINS UNLIKELY AS RUSSIAN URALS REMAIN ATTRACTIVELY PRICED FOR INDIA'S COMPLEX REFINING SYSTEM, WHILE COMPARABLE ALTERNATIVES FROM THE US OR MIDDLE EAST ARE GENERALLY MORE EXPENSIVE AND MARGIN-DILUTIVE

• SAYS ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SUGGESTED VENEZUELAN BARRELS AS A REPLACEMENT, VENEZUELA'S TOTAL EXPORTS AVERAGED 800 KBD IN 2025 AND COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 1 MBD QUICKLY, BUT ABOUT 300 KBD IS ALREADY FLOWING TO THE U.S.

• SAYS VENEZUELAN GRADES DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM URALS IN QUALITY, AND WITH CURRENT PRICE DYNAMICS FAVORING RUSSIA, RUSSIAN CRUDE OFTEN REMAINS THE MORE EFFICIENT CHOICE