FACTBOX-Morgan Stanley raises near-term Brent forecasts
Feb 4 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has raised its near-term Brent forecasts, saying a geopolitical risk premium is likely to persist, but still expects prices below $60 per barrel later this year, it said in a note dated Tuesday.
The bank raised its Brent forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $62.5 per barrel from $57.5/bbl. It also raised its second-quarter forecast to $57.5/bbl from $55/bbl, citing that risks due to global conflicts could last longer.
However, its Brent forecasts for the second half of 2026, and both halves of 2027 were left unchanged, with the bank seeing higher inventories in key pricing locations weighing on prices, resulting in a contango market structure later this year.
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | ||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 |
|
JP Morgan | $58 | $57 | $54 | $53 | November 24, 2025 |
Macquarie | $61 | - | $57 | - | September 30, 2025 |
Commerzbank | $60 | - | $57 | - | November 11, 2025 |
Goldman Sachs | $56 | - | $52 | - | December 18, 2025 |
Barclays | $65 | - | - | - | December 11, 2025 |
HSBC | $65 | - | $62 | - | April 15, 2025 |
BofA | $60 | - | $57 | - | December 18, 2025 |
Citi | $62 | - | - | - | December 11, 2025 |
Deutsche Bank | $72 | - | - | - | October 13, 2025 |
Morgan Stanley | $70 | - | - | January 13, 2025 | |
UBS | $67* | - | - | - | January 5, 2026 |
indicates end-of-period forecasts
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL
Related Articles
$660B Capex Bill Triggers $900B Wipeout: Why Apple Shares Outperform Amazon and Google Despite AI Lag
Based on financial disclosures, the combined 2026 capital expenditure forecasts for Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are projected to reach $660 billion. This figure is not only significantly higher than the $410 billion forecast for 2025 and $245 billion for 2024, but even surpasses the GDP of I
Amazon Stock Predictions for 2026 to 2030: Will They Exceed Expectations and Achieve Major Long-Term Goals?
TradingKey - As we head into 2026, many investors are questioning where Amazon (AMZN) fits into the technology world.
A Crash After a Surge: Why Silver Lost 40% in a Week?
TradingKey - Spot silver (XAGUSD) prices continue to decline. Silver plunged 20% on Thursday, breaking below $71 per ounce, with the sell-off intensifying on Friday as prices fell further below $64. Compared to the all-time high set on January 29, silver prices have retraced more than 40%, wiping out nearly all gains accumulated over the previous month.
Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead in 2026?
Is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle dead? After 2025 broke historical records with a red post-halving year, institutional analysts explore if the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the halving countdown. Analyze the impact of spot ETFs, global liquidity, and the roadmap to the 2028 halving in this 2026 market
