Goldman, Macquarie lift average 2026 nickel price forecasts on tighter Indonesian supply

Feb 3 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and Macquarie on Tuesday raised their average 2026 nickel price forecasts, citing tighter Indonesian ore supply after signals from Indonesia that it plans to curb production.

Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia sparked a rebound in nickel prices in mid-December by pledging to cut production.

Indonesia will cut this year's annual mining permits to 250 million to 260 million wet tons of ore from 379 million tons in 2025, an energy ministry official confirmed on January 14.

Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of the battery metal nickel.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 nickel price forecast to an average of $17,200 per ton from $14,800, citing the decline in Indonesia's ore supply to 260 million metric tons.

The bank said prices could reach around $18,700 a ton by the second quarter of 2026 as tighter ore availability supports the market.

It anticipates supply rising later in the year as supplementary approvals lift output back toward 300 million tons, returning the refined market to a surplus of about 191,000 tons and pushing prices down toward cost support of $15,500 per ton by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, Macquarie also upgraded its outlook, raising its 2026 average LME nickel price forecast to $17,750 a ton from $15,000.

Macquarie said the net impact of Indonesia's tighter supply stance would be to lower its projection of the global nickel market balance to a surplus of about 90,000 tons, from 250,000 tons previously.

Macquarie said it assumes the Indonesian government will fine-tune its mining quota (RKAB) policies to target nickel prices around $18,000 a ton.

LME nickel CMNI3 closed at around $17,447 a ton on Tuesday.