US shale production could fall by 400,000 barrels per day if prices dip to $40 a barrel, analyst says

By Curtis Williams

PORT OF SPAIN, Jan 26 (Reuters) - U.S. shale production could fall by as much as 400,000 barrels of oil per day in 2026 if OPEC countries try to increase market share and oil prices fall to as low as $40 a barrel, according to Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad.

U.S. shale production could remain flat if prices stay close to $60 a barrel, but that will require OPEC countries to hold production at present levels, Rystad said at an energy conference on Monday in Trinidad and Tobago.

"For 2026 we see a flat development of shale at the downside case, if OPEC is taking a more aggressive stance on bringing back volumes," Rystad told the conference.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last year that it expected American shale oil production to reach around 9.7 million bpd in 2025.

West Texas Intermediate was trading around $61 a barrel on Monday, according to LSEG data. A Reuters survey of 34 economists and analysts conducted in December forecast that WTI crude would average $58.15 per barrel in 2026.

If China buys 800,000 bpd to build up inventory it could lead to oil prices increasing to $70 a barrel, Rystad said.