US natgas futures surge over 68% this week on frigid weather forecasts

ReutersJan 23, 2026 8:08 PM

By Noel John

Jan 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose 4.6% on Friday, pushing the weekly gain past 68%, lifted by forecasts for extreme cold over the next two weeks that is seen driving heating demand close to levels while freezing oil and gas wells, cutting output.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 23 cents to settle at $5.275 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

"Henry Hub pricing swung significantly higher this week largely on colder weather forecasts across the U.S. in the near-term, and supported by LNG feedgas demand," RBC Capital Markets said in a note on Friday.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 6, as Heating Degree Days (HDDs) stood at 581 on Friday, exceeding the near-normal level of 395. HDDs measure energy demand to heat buildings.

During extreme cold, there are real concerns about equipment freezing — from hydrating wells to pipelines — and that's going to keep the market well supported, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, the U.S. power grid faces an elevated risk of disruption over the next several days as an Arctic blast and reduced gas supplies test the sturdiness of electric infrastructure vulnerable to the around-the-clock demands of data centers.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration storage release on Thursday showed energy firms pulled just 120 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended January 16 when the weather was still warmer than normal.

That reading was bigger than the 106-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, but below a decline of 228 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 191 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

"Even allowing for some temperature moderation through the first week of next month, the magnitude of this current cold spell will be prompting some huge storage withdrawals during the next few weeks," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has slid to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 173 bcfd this week to 156 bcfd next week.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have held at 18.6 bcfd so far in January, matching the monthly record high set in December.

Elsewhere, benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were steady, due to a warmer-than-expected February forecast, even as concerns remained around cold temperatures in the U.S. and a possible impact on liquefied natural gas exports. NG/EU

	Week ended Jan 16 Actual	Week ended Jan 9 Actual	Year ago Jan 16	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 16
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-120	-71	-228	-191
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,065	3,185	2,924	2,888
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.1%	+3.4%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	5.05	5.55	3.72	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	13.30	13.33	14.67	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.22	11.34	14.16	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	581	592	351	377	395
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	1	1	5	3	2
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	582	593	356	340	397

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.0	106.7	107.6	101.1	98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.7	9.8	8.7	N/A	9.6
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	118.8	116.6	116.4	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.8	2.5	2.6	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.1	5.9	5.8	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.3	18.8	18.1	13.4	12.8
U.S. Commercial	15.9	25.1	21.0	23.2	17.3
U.S. Residential	26.5	44.5	36.5	41.0	29.9
U.S. Power Plant	32.1	38.5	36.0	40.9	32.5
U.S. Industrial	25.4	28.4	27.0	27.7	26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.3	5.3	5.4	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.9	3.9	3.4	2.9	4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	108.3	145.8	129.4	141.2	115.5
Total U.S. Demand	136.6	173.0	156	N/A	137.0

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	93	94	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	99	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jan 23	Week ended Jan 16	2025	2024	2023
Wind	12	13	11	11	10
Solar	4	5	6	5	4
Hydro	7	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	40	42	41
Coal	19	17	18	16	17
Nuclear	19	20	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	8.42	4.96	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	12.57	4.72	8.77	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.95	2.99	3.87	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	8.36	4.52	3.74	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	15.88	4.83	3.93	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	24.96	12.55	15.67	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	4.42	3.69	4.49	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	2.58	1.48	3.27	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	3.20	1.98	1.22	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	171.36	100.75	147.88	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	89.67	49.48	75.11	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	53.93	40.70	52.79	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	53	36.50	44.47	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	50.20	40.71	39.98	28.44	53.02

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