US natural gas futures hold near 12-week low ahead of storage report

ReutersJan 15, 2026 2:49 PM

Mild weather leads to smaller storage withdrawals
LNG export flows decline due to plant disruptions
Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a 12-week low on Thursday as the market waited for direction from a federal report expected to show a smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal due to mild weather and low heating demand last week.

That lack of price movement came despite a bullish drop in daily output and a bearish decline in flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants in recent days due to disruptions at several plants, including Freeport LNG's facility in Texas.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.4 cent, or 0.1%, to $3.116 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since October 17 for a second day in a row.

Analysts forecast energy firms pulled 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 9. That compares with a decline of 227 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 146 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the cash gas market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a third day in a row and the sixth time this year as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Waha prices have averaged a negative 21 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary 12-week low of 106.2 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in North Dakota and Texas, according to LSEG data, down from 108.0 bcfd on Wednesday and a record 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through January 30, with the most frigid days expected around January 18-20, which includes the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend on January 17-19.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.2 bcfd this week to 150.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants held at 18.5 bcfd so far in January, the same as December's monthly record high.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from an 11-week low of 16.3 bcfd on Wednesday to a preliminary 17.8 bcfd on Thursday with flows to Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas, which shut on Tuesday, expected to jump from 0.5 bcfd on Wednesday to 1.8 bcfd on Thursday.

	Week ended Jan 9 Forecast	Week ended Jan 2 Actual	Year ago Jan 9	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 9
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-90	-119	-227	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,166	3,256	3,152	3,079
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+2.8%	+1.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.19	3.12	3.72	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.29	10.94	14.67	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	9.60	9.61	14.16	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	490	489	538	440	459
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	3	4	0	3	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	493	493	538	443	462

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.3	108.9	109.3	103.5	98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.3	9.7	9.6	N/A	9.6
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.6	118.7	118.9	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	3.9	3.9	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.8	5.9	5.7	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.4	17.8	15.1	12.8
U.S. Commercial	15.0	15.8	20.0	19.1	17.3
U.S. Residential	24.4	26.2	34.1	34.9	29.9
U.S. Power Plant	31.4	32.3	33.0	37.7	32.5
U.S. Industrial	24.9	25.3	26.7	26.3	26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.8	2.9	3.3	2.8	4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	104.0	108.0	122.7	126.3	115.5
Total U.S. Demand	132.3	136.2	150.1	N/A	137.0

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	98	100	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	98	99	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	103	103	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jan 16	Week ended Jan 9	2025	2024	2023
Wind	13	14	11	11	10
Solar	5	5	6	5	4
Hydro	8	8	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	35	40	42	41
Coal	16	15	18	16	17
Nuclear	21	22	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.13	3.00	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	6.40	2.90	8.77	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.18	2.16	3.87	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.64	2.70	3.74	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.80	2.85	3.93	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	11.65	5.09	15.67	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.83	2.93	4.49	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.48	-0.50	3.27	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.33	1.31	1.22	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	105.86	68.88	147.88	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	62.90	36.13	75.11	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	16.23	19.05	52.79	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	17.25	20.61	44.47	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	19.50	23.11	39.98	28.44	53.02

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