US natgas futures edge up on record LNG export flows, colder forecasts

ReutersJan 13, 2026 2:21 PM

Record LNG export flows drive demand and prices
Colder weather increases heating demand forecasts
Waha Hub prices fall below zero due to pipeline constraints

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Tuesday after jumping 8% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 1.4 cents, or 0.4%, to $3.423 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for the fourth time this year as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Waha prices have averaged a negative 12 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in all of 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through January 28 with the most frigid days around January 18-20.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.3 bcfd this week to 151.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 19.5 bcfd on Monday on all-time high flows of 2.6 bcfd to Cheniere Energy's LNG.A 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in service and under construction in Texas. That topped the prior total daily record of 19.3 bcfd on December 4.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, a two-month high, and around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Jan 9 Forecast	Week ended Jan 2 Actual	Year ago Jan 9	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 9
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-90	-119	-227	-146
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,166	3,256	3,152	3,079
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+2.8%	+1.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.47	3.41	3.72	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.69	10.42	14.67	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	9.61	9.57	14.16	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	470	461	538	440	460
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	4	3	0	3	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	474	464	538	443	463

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.3	109.6	109.8	103.5	98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.3	9.6	9.7	N/A	9.6
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.6	119.1	119.5	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	4.0	4.0	4.1	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.8	5.8	5.7	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	19.2	18.7	15.1	12.8
U.S. Commercial	15.0	15.9	20.4	19.1	17.3
U.S. Residential	24.4	26.5	34.5	34.9	29.9
U.S. Power Plant	31.4	31.1	32.6	37.7	32.5
U.S. Industrial	24.9	25.4	26.8	26.3	26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.8	2.9	3.3	2.8	4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	104.0	107.3	123.1	126.3	115.5
Total U.S. Demand	132.3	136.3	151.5	N/A	137.0

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	99	99	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	99	100	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	104	103	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jan 16	Week ended Jan 9	2025	2024	2023
Wind	12	14	11	11	10
Solar	5	5	6	5	4
Hydro	8	8	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	35	40	42	41
Coal	15	15	18	16	17
Nuclear	22	22	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.90	2.87	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.60	2.61	8.77	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.25	2.31	3.87	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.33	2.37	3.74	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.59	2.63	3.93	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	5.47	7.55	15.67	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.94	3.03	4.49	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.21	2.13	3.27	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.31	1.46	1.22	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	68.46	93.00	147.88	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	33.78	42.60	75.11	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	17.65	17.04	52.79	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	23.08	25.29	44.47	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	25.29	26.18	39.98	28.44	53.02

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