TECHNICALS-NY coffee may fall toward $2.5415-$2.8775 range in Q1

SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - New York coffee KCc2 may break the support at $3.2130 per lb in the first quarter of 2026 and fall toward $2.5415 to $2.8775 range.

A correction from $4.2995 looks incomplete. It consists of three waves and may have adopted a flat pattern, which is characterised by its three component waves.

The third wave, the current wave C, is expected to travel toward $2.8775, near the bottom of the wave B at $2.7710. A rising trendline points to a target around $3.10.

Once the market drops to this level, a break below the support at $3.2130 will be confirmed. A further fall toward $2.8770 will be highly likely.

A stabilisation of the price around the trendline, followed by a rise above $3.2130 would create two possible outcomes: a decent bounce toward $3.6280 or a resumption of the uptrend toward $4.2995.

On the daily chart, the contract is experiencing a bounce toward $3.4750 to $3.6030 range, as the bounce is expected to be the same degree as the one from the November 21 low of $3.5165.

One of the purposes of the bounce is to cover a gap that formed between December 18 and December 19. A falling channel indicates a target zone of $3.4750 to $3.6030. The downtrend is expected to resume upon the completion of the bounce.

A break below $3.2680 would open the way toward $2.9330 to $3.0825 range. A break above $3.6030 would be regarded as the first indication that wave C has completed.

Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.