TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans may consolidate below $11.07-1/4 in Q1

SINGAPORE, Dec 26 (Reuters) - CBOT soybeans Sc1 may consolidate below resistance at $11.07-1/4 per bushel or retrace toward $9.44 in the first quarter of 2026.

A retracement analysis on the uptrend from $4.15-1/2 to $17.99 marks key support at $9.44 and resistance at $11.07-1/4, the 61.8% and 50% levels, respectively.

The failure of the contract to break $11.07-1/4 suggests a steady downtrend within a falling channel. Wave pattern indicates that the bounce triggered by $9.44 might have been driven by a wave (d), the fourth wave of a five-wave cycle from $17.84.

This wave is expected to be reversed by the current wave (e). There is a bullish scenario, as the wave (d) could be alternatively counted as a wave a, the first wave of the bounce from the August 2024 low of $9.36-1/4.

Based on this alternative wave count, the downtrend from $17.84 may have reversed. The fall would be limited to $9.44. A break above $11.07-1/4 would open the way toward $12.70-1/2, while a break below $9.44 would confirm the extension of the downtrend toward $7.42.

On the weekly chart, the falling channel seems intact. The rise from $9.36-1/4 adopted a corrective wave mode, with the wave b having ended at $9.60-3/4, the July 2025 low.

This bottom of the wave b serves as a target. A projection analysis on a downtrend from $16.16-1/2 reveals a fine-tuned resistance at $10.82-1/4, a break above which may lead to a gain into $11.18-3/4 to $11.72-1/4 range.

Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

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