US natural gas futures edge down in volatile trading after hitting near 2-week high

ReutersDec 24, 2025 1:51 PM

By Anmol Choubey

Dec 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged down on Wednesday in thin pre-holiday trading, after touching a near two-week high, supported by forecasts for colder weather and robust gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 6.3 cents at $4.35 per million British thermal units by 8:38 a.m. ET (1338 GMT) after hitting its highest level since December 11 at $4.593. Prices rose more than 11% on Tuesday, marking the contract's sharpest daily rise since October 30.

Meteorologists forecast a slight drop in temperatures nationwide through January 8, with Heating Degree Days increasing from 358 on Tuesday to 377 on Wednesday, still below the normal level of 447, but forecasters anticipate colder weather in the days ahead.

"The market's a little on edge and that's why it's trading up the last day or so," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial, adding that lower volumes due to the Christmas holiday have contributed to some volatility.

Trading volume remains thin at just 22,500 lots so far, reflecting light liquidity in the January 2026 contract during the holiday period.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.4 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

"The LNG exports have helped support the market," Saal said.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 127.9 bcfd this week to 136.4 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Financial firm LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to a record high of 109.8 billion cubic feet per day in December, surpassing November's monthly record of 109.6 bcfd.

U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes BKR.O said in its closely followed report on Tuesday.

Dutch and British gas contracts rose slightly on Wednesday morning amid thin trading ahead of a long Christmas holiday as forecasts of a cold spell are expected to boost demand. NG/EU

In other news, Russia's leading tanker group Sovcomflot received the first Russian-built ice-class tanker for liquefied natural gas from Zvezda shipyard with plans to get two more next year, Interfax reported on Wednesday citing the company's CEO.

	Week ended Dec 19 Forecast	Week ended Dec 12 Actual	Year ago Dec 19	Five-year average Dec 19
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-170	-167	-98	-110
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,409	3,579	3,542	3,437
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	-0.8%	+0.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.35	4.11	3.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.75	9.47	13.83	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	9.63	9.59	14.34	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	377	358	389	428	448
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	7	7	3	4	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	384	365	389	432	451

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.3	111.2	110.9	N/A	99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.4	9.8	9.9	N/A	8.9
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.0	0.0	N/A	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.8	121.0	120.8	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.6	4.2	4.2	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	5.6	5.8	6.0	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.3	18.2	18.2	N/A	12.8
U.S. Commercial	17.9	14.2	16.4	N/A	14.9
U.S. Residential	30.3	22.6	27.2	N/A	24.2
U.S. Power Plant	34.9	29.9	30.6	N/A	33.6
U.S. Industrial	26.1	24.7	25.2	N/A	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.5	5.5	N/A	5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.1	2.6	2.9	N/A	4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	N/A	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	117.8	99.6	107.9	N/A	108.0
Total U.S. Demand	145.3	127.9	136.4	N/A	129.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	98	100	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	98	100	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	104	105	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Dec 26	Week ended Dec 19	2024	2023	2022
Wind	15	14	11	10	11
Solar	4	4	5	4	3
Hydro	7	6	6	6	6
Other	0	0	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	34	37	42	41	38
Coal	17	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	21	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.375	3.67	3.02	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.949	3.31	3.31	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.34	2.58	3.42	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.688	2.83	2.70	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.756	2.96	2.82	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	9.5	7.5	8.16	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.767	3.09	3.54	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-2.775		2.28	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	2.623	2.68	1.26	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	90.71	84	85.01	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	34.42	46.98	43.03	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	17.55	23.97	42.33	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	22.4	24	32.02	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	26.54	37.78	39.19	31.30	58.87

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