METALS-Copper hits record high above $12,000 a ton on weaker dollar and supply outlook

By Polina Devitt

LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Copper prices hit a record high on Tuesday, crossing the $12,000 mark as thin year-end trade extended momentum for speculative buying on a weaker dollar and worries about tighter supply.

Benchmark three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange was up 1% at $12,039 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading after touching a record $12,132.

The dollar index fell while the Chinese yuan climbed to a 15-month high against the U.S. currency, making dollar-priced metals more attractive for buyers in the top metals consumer.FRX/

The Yangshan premium SMM-CUYP-CN, an indicator of Chinese appetite for copper imports, rose 15% to a three-month high of $55 a ton.

Heading for the biggest annual gain since 2009, copper is up 38% this year after mine supply disruptions, outflows of stocks to the U.S. and bets that demand for copper will benefit from the green energy transition.

From the point of view of global supply, there is no shortage of the metal. The International Copper Study Group estimates that the market had a surplus of 122,000 tons for the first 10 months of the year.

However, copper has been flooding into the United States, HG-STX-COMEX tightening availability in traditional consuming centres on the prospect of President Donald Trump placing an import tariff on refined copper from 2027.

Exports of refined copper from China surged in November to their second-highest monthly level on record, with more than a third of shipments bound for the United States.

Goldman Sachs expects the copper price to consolidate in 2026 and average $11,400, with tariff uncertainty lingering.

Under the bank's base case scenario prices will edge down in the second half of 2026 and early 2027 once the U.S. starts to run down its stockpiles.

Among other LME metals, nickel CMNI3 jumped 2.5% to $15,660 a ton in official activity after touching a seven-month high of $15,940 on bets that Indonesia could reduce mine output in 2026.

Aluminium CMAL3 added 0.5% to $2,955 a ton, zinc CMZN3 gained 1.1% to $3,118, lead CMPB3 was up 1.1% at $1,992.50 and tin CMSN3 rose 1.5% to $43,600 after hitting its highest since early 2022 at $43,970.