US natural gas futures fall 3% on mild weather forecasts

ReutersDec 18, 2025 8:04 PM

Milder weather forecasts reduce natural gas demand in coming weeks
Global gas prices drop amid mild winter and Ukraine peace hopes
Near-record gas flows to LNG export plants boost futures
US gas output slightly declines from record highs
Energy firms pulled more gas from storage than usual during last week's extreme cold

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, and relatively low gas prices around the world.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.6 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.908 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

That price decline came despite a federal report showing last week's storage withdrawal was much bigger than usual for this time of year as extreme cold boosted heating demand.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 167 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended December 12.

That was in line with the 169-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 134 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 96 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual so far this year, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 1% above normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 2, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 144.8 bcfd this week to 128.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading near a 19-month low of around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and near a 20-month low of around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia. NG/EU

Global prices have declined in recent weeks with the slow start of the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow.

That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.

	Week ended Dec 12 Actual	Week ended Dec 5 Actual	Year ago Dec 12	Five-year average Dec 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-167	-177	-134	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,579	3,746	3,640	3,547
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+0.9%	+2.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.12	4.02	3.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.36	9.42	13.83	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	9.54	9.46	14.34	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	341	350	339	402	442
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	7	6	6	5	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	348	356	345	407	445

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.9	109.2	108.6	104.4	99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.2	10.5	9.3	N/A	8.9
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	120.1	119.7	117.9	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.5	3.5	3.5	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	5.2	6.0	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.9	18.3	18.1	14.3	12.8
U.S. Commercial	17.5	17.9	14.7	15.4	14.9
U.S. Residential	29.6	30.1	24.2	23.3	24.2
U.S. Power Plant	34.8	35.0	29.3	33.1	33.6
U.S. Industrial	25.9	26.0	24.6	24.8	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.1	3.1	2.7	3.1	4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	116.5	117.7	101.1	105.2	108.0
Total U.S. Demand	145.2	144.8	128.8	N/A	129.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	102	102	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	102	101	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	105	104	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Dec 19	Week ended Dec 12	2024	2023	2022
Wind	12	11	11	10	11
Solar	4	4	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	38	39	42	41	38
Coal	19	20	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub	3.66	3.58	3.02	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York	3.62	3.79	3.31	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate	3.03	3.03	3.42	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)	3.19	3.18	2.70	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate	3.35	3.19	2.82	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate	4.20	7.85	8.16	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate	3.29	3.19	3.54	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub	1.26	0.79	2.28	0.77	2.91
AECO	2.07	1.94	1.26	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England	54.91	96.28	85.01	47.35	48.44
PJM West	54.97	62.47	43.03	41.98	45.33
Mid C	25.30	13.76	42.33	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde	25.75	25.38	32.02	39.50	62.42
SP-15	35.04	28.08	39.19	31.30	58.87

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