US natural gas futures dip 3% as mild weather curbs demand

ReutersDec 15, 2025 9:18 PM

Milder weather forecasts reduce natural gas demand
Record gas output allows for ample storage
Global gas prices decline amid mild winter and Ukraine peace hopes
LNG export feedgas near record high

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% to a fresh six-week low on Monday on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, and recent declines in gas prices around the world.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.1 cents, or 2.5%, to $4.012 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since October 30 for a second day in a row.

That also kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since August.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a fourth day in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

It was the 35th time Waha prices traded below zero this year and compares with an average of $1.21 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).

Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, up from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-week low of 108.9 bcfd, down about 2.4 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 111.3 bcfd on November 28.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual so far this year, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 1% above normal. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 30, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.2 bcfd this week to 131.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.6 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

Around the world, gas prices held near 19-month lows of about $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia. NG/EU

Global prices have declined in recent weeks with a slow start to the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.

	Week ended Dec 12 Forecast	Week ended Dec 5 Actual	Year ago Dec 12	Five-year average Dec 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-153	-177	-134	-96
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,593	3,746	3,640	3,547
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+1.3%	+2.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.08	4.11	3.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.42	9.46	13.83	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.70	10.75	14.34	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	368	381	339	402	438
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	8	9	6	5	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	376	390	345	407	441

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.9	109.4	109.2	104.4	99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.2	10.0	9.2	N/A	8.9
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	120.1	119.5	118.4	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.5	3.2	3.3	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	5.6	6.0	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.9	18.4	18.2	14.3	12.8
U.S. Commercial	17.5	18.2	15.3	15.4	14.9
U.S. Residential	29.6	30.9	25.5	23.3	24.2
U.S. Power Plant	34.8	34.2	30.2	33.1	33.6
U.S. Industrial	25.9	26.1	24.8	24.8	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.1	3.1	2.8	3.1	4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	116.5	118.1	104.1	105.2	108.0
Total U.S. Demand	145.2	145.2	131.6	N/A	129.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	103	101	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	101	98	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	105	101	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Dec 19	Week ended Dec 12	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	11	11	10	11
Solar	4	4	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	39	39	42	41	38
Coal	20	20	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub	4.07	4.35	3.02	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York	10.72	5.63	3.31	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate	3.47	3.43	3.42	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)	3.86	3.89	2.70	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate	4.43	4.11	2.82	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate	19.94	18.50	8.16	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate	3.77	3.68	3.54	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub	-1.06	-6.05	2.28	0.77	2.91
AECO	2.31	2.40	1.26	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England	163.25	176.72	85.01	47.35	48.44
PJM West	170.08	88.32	43.03	41.98	45.33
Mid C	19.12	27.55	42.33	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde	26.39	27.41	32.02	39.50	62.42
SP-15	38.04	35.95	39.19	31.30	58.87

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