Goldman Sachs lifts 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton

Dec 15 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton from $10,650, citing reduced odds of a refined copper tariff being implemented in the first half of 2026 as affordability concerns take priority.

Benchmark three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.4% to $11,670 per metric ton by 1838 GMT.

Copper hit a record high of $11,952 on Friday on worries about tight supply, but then experienced a selloff amid renewed fears that the artificial intelligence sector was in a bubble that was ready to burst. MET/L

Daily inflows to the Comex copper stocks HG-STX-COMEX, already at a record high, continued due to higher prices on Comex. The U.S. excluded refined copper from the 50% import tariffs that came into force in August but kept the matter under review.

Goldman Sachs said there is a 55% chance that the Trump administration will announce a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026, with implementation slated for 2027 and a possible increase to 30% in 2028.

The investment bank said the prospect of future tariffs is likely to keep U.S. copper prices trading at a premium to the London Metal Exchange benchmark and drive stockpiling, which would tighten supply in markets outside the U.S., which is now a key driver of global copper prices.

"We have kept our 2027 price forecast of $10,750 unchanged, as we expect the LME price to retreat once a tariff is in place and the ex-U.S. market rebalances," Goldman Sachs added.

It also lifted its forecast for the 2026 global market surplus to 300,000 tons from 160,000 tons.