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GRAINS-Wheat bounces after selloff triggered by USDA's output estimates

ReutersDec 11, 2025 1:16 PM

- U.S. wheat futures rebounded on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar, having fallen nearly 1% in the previous session after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its global output estimates, cementing expectations for ample supply.

Corn also bounced back while soybean edged higher, extending its rise after the USDA confirmed sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. beans to China, another 331,000 tons to undisclosed destinations and 120,000 tons of soymeal to Poland.

The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was up 0.7% at $5.33-1/2 a bushel at 1230 GMT, after falling to $5.25-1/4 on Wednesday, its lowest since October 31.

The dollar found support on Thursday from a broad risk-off mood in markets, but failed to recoup its overnight losses against peers after the Federal Reserve delivered a less hawkish outlook than some had expected.

A weaker dollar makes U.S. crops cheaper for buyers with other currencies and can boost demand.

The USDA on Tuesday raised its wheat production forecasts for this season in major exporters, including Russia, Australia and Canada, and increased its global ending stocks estimate by 3.4 million tons, more than most analysts had expected.

"We expect wheat prices to settle into a range," said Tobin Gorey, founder of consultants Cornucopia.

Gorey said investor positioning had become more neutral in recent weeks, and that because the Ukraine-Russia war was not impeding grain exports, any moves towards peace were unlikely to significantly move prices.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 were 0.1% higher at $10.92-3/4 a bushel, having slipped to their lowest since late October on Wednesday.

Prices are down around 6.5% from a 17-month high of $11.69-1/2 hit last month due to weak U.S. export demand.

StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said China had purchased around 6 million tons of U.S. soybeans since Washington and Beijing agreed a trade truce in late October - far below the 12 million tons that U.S. officials said China would buy by year-end.

Brazilian crop agency Conab on Thursday lowered the country's 2025/26 soybean production forecast by around 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 million tons, still a record if the projection is confirmed.

Corn Cv1 was up 0.7% at $4.47-1/4 a bushel. Prices have barely budged this month, with strong U.S. export demand offset by plentiful global supply.

Prices at 1230 GMT

Last

Change

Pct Move

CBOT wheat Wv1

533.25

3.75

0.71

CBOT corn Cv1

447.25

3.00

0.68

CBOT soy Sv1

1092.75

1.50

0.14

Paris wheat BL2Z4

190.00

0.00

0.00

Paris maize BOc1

50.81

0.00

0.00

Paris rapeseed COMc1

477.00

0.50

0.10

Euro/dlr EUR=

1.17

0.00

0.19

Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per tonne

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