Soybeans dip below $11 on doubts about demand for US exports

• Chinese soybean purchases fall short of U.S. expectations
• Brazil's favorable weather boosts soybean crop prospects
• Trade awaits Tuesday's monthly USDA supply/demand report

By Julie Ingwersen

CHICAGO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures fell below $11 a bushel on Monday for the first time since October on uncertainty over whether China will buy as much U.S. supply as Washington expects and as South American crop weather favored large soy harvests that could begin in Brazil in about a month, analysts said.

Corn and wheat futures followed the weaker trend. Market players awaited a monthly crop supply-demand report due from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday, as well as an interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans SF26 settled down 11-1/2 cents at $10.93-3/4 per bushel. CBOT March corn CH26 ended down 1 cent at $4.43-3/4 a bushel and March wheat WH26 finished down 1 cent at $5.34-3/4 a bushel.

Soybeans have fallen from a 17-month high of $11.69-1/2 set last month after a trade truce between Washington and Beijing renewed Chinese purchases of U.S. soy.

But the pace of Chinese buying has underwhelmed traders. Including a sale announced on Friday of 462,000 metric tons, total U.S. soybean sales to China since the truce have reached about 2.7 million tons, compared with a target of 12 million tons cited by U.S. officials. The USDA on Monday confirmed fresh sales to China of another 132,000 tons.

"China continues to slow-walk the purchases," said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

Ahead of the USDA's supply-demand report on Tuesday, brokers will be watching closely to see how the agency adjusts its forecast of U.S. soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year that began on September 1, 2025.

"The trade is concerned that if the government takes exports down at all, that’s a signal that things are not going that well" in terms of bookings to China, Roose said.

Meanwhile, crop prospects remain strong in Brazil, the world's biggest soybean producer and exporter. Widespread rains were forecast across the South American country this week, with the heaviest showers expected in southern areas, easing concerns about dryness, weather firm Vaisala said in a client note.

Corn and wheat futures declined but the markets found light underlying support from USDA projections released on Friday that American farmers will plant less of the cereals next year and shift some area towards soybeans.

Tensions in the Black Sea grain export region kept a floor under the wheat market. Ukraine's maritime export terminals have reduced grain intake due to constant Russian attacks, which are curtailing trading activity, analyst Barva Invest said on Friday. War insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea have spiked, shipping and insurance sources said last week.