REFILE-OPEC+ expected to hold oil output policy steady for Q1, sources say

By Ahmad Ghaddar and Olesya Astakhova

LONDON/MOSCOW, Nov 27 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at its meetings on Sunday and to agree on a mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity, two delegates from the group and a source familiar with OPEC+ talks told Reuters.

The eight OPEC+ countries which have been gradually raising output in 2025 are expected to keep their policy to pause hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged, the two delegates said.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, pumps about half the world's oil and has been discussing for years production capacity figures against which members' output targets are set.

The full OPEC+ group is expected to agree on the capacity mechanism in a separate meeting on Sunday, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity.

OPEC said in May this capacity assessment would be used as reference for 2027 output baselines.

OPEC, Saudi and Russian authorities did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment.

Ministers are scheduled to hold four online meetings on Sunday starting with OPEC ministers only at 1300 GMT, the two delegates said. This will be followed by meetings of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), of all OPEC+ ministers and ending with a meeting of the eight members.

OPEC+ discussed the capacity issue in September at a technical level. Previous baseline discussions have often been fraught as they determine the size of the production cuts each member will contribute. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement on its production target.

OPEC+ had been curtailing supplies for years until April when the eight members began to raise production to recover market share. The cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million barrels per day, almost 6% of world output, in total.

The eight - Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - have raised output targets by around 2.9 million bpd from April to December, and agreed the first-quarter pause at their last meeting.

OPEC+ ministers are also expected to not make any changes to group-wide production targets for 2026, which include a 2 million bpd cut shared by most members in place until the end of next year, the sources added.