US natgas futures ease on record output and ample storage

ReutersNov 24, 2025 7:58 PM

Record US gas output allows for increased stockpiling
LNG export flows close to record levels
Colder weather expected to increase gas demand for heating
Global prices vary, with Europe at 16-month low and Asia flat

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 24 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Monday on record output and ample amounts of gas in storage.

Prices declined despite near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts of colder weather and higher demand than previously expected over the next two weeks.

On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.1 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $4.549 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

On Friday, the contract closed at its highest level since November 13.

Futures for January 2026 NGF26, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 1.7% at $4.66 per mmBtu.

That cut the premium for January over December NGZ25-F26 to about 13 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since December 2022.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, output climbed to a record 110.8 bcfd on November 23, topping the previous record daily peak of 110.7 bcfd on November 22.

Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 5% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 9.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise to 133.2 bcfd next week from 121.6 bcfd this week.

Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. rose to 18.0 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.

Elsewhere, the Imsaikah LNG vessel moved into the Caribbean Sea on its way to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's XOM.N 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.

The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG this year or early next year.

The United States became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Around the world, gas prices fell to a 16-month low near $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 in Europe on negotiations over a potential peace plan for Russia and Ukraine while Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 prices in Asia held around $11. NG/EU

	Week ended Nov 21 Forecast	Week ended Nov 14 Actual	Year ago Nov 21	Five-year average Nov 21
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+3	-14	-2	-25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,949	3,946	3,967	3,775
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.6%	+3.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.50	4.58	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.93	10.20	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.47	11.71	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	365	318	372	337	353
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	9	11	3	7	6
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	374	329	375	344	359

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.5	110.2	109.8	103.6	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.7	8.7	8.6	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	118.2	118.9	118.5	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.2	3.0	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.0	6.2	6.2	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.3	18.4	18.3	13.9	12.2
U.S. Commercial	10.9	12.0	15.4	13.1	11.0
U.S. Residential	16.3	18.5	25.4	20.7	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	32.3	31.3	31.3	30.9	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.5	24.1	25.1	24.6	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.4	2.5	2.8	2.4	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	91.0	93.9	105.6	97.2	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	118.3	121.6	133.2	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	90	88	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	85	85	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	86	86	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 21	Week ended Nov 14	2024	2023	2022
Wind	9	11	11	10	11
Solar	4	4	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	40	42	41	38
Coal	18	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	21	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	4.13	3.97	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.69	3.66	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	4.36	4.17	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.67	3.58	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.81	3.79	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.78	4.72	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	4.02	4.00	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.91	1.00	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.81	1.76	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	71.00	67.55	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	51.54	63.71	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	41.99	45.69	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	28.18	39.90	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	36.95	44.70	30.01	31.30	58.87

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