Easing tariff concerns may balance platinum market in 2026, WPIC says

ReutersNov 19, 2025 6:00 AM

WPIC trims 2025 platinum market deficit forecast
Expects 2025 global demand for platinum jewellery to fall 5% y/y
Demand from the auto sector expected to fall by 3% in 2025
Platinum supply in 2026 seen up 4%

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Nov 19 (Reuters) - Easing tariff concerns could lead to a more balanced platinum market in 2026, while 2025 is expected to mark a third straight deficit, the World Platinum Investment Council said on Wednesday.

The platinum market is expected to post an annual deficit of 0.692 million ounces in 2025. However, this is a downward revision of 0.158 million ounces from the previous forecast, mainly due to higher mining and recycling supply, according to the WPIC.

The WPIC, whose members are major Western platinum producers, expects the 2026 market to be broadly balanced, with a small 20,000-ounce surplus, as total supply rises 4% year-on-year to 7.404 million ounces on more recycling and a 2% increase in mine supply to 5.622 million ounces.

This balanced outlook assumes the build-up in CME/NYMEX exchange stocks seen in 2025 reverses in 2026 amid greater certainty about U.S. trade policy, the WPIC added.

Spot platinum prices XPT= have surged 70% so far this year, hitting an 11-year high in October, driven by gold’s XAU= record rally and tight supply. Heightened trade uncertainty has driven a sharp build in NYMEX platinum inventories. PL-STX-COMEX

"The substantial 2025 platinum market deficit has been accentuated by trade tension-linked investment flows," WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said, adding that its 2026 balance outlook assumed tensions ease.

"If these tensions continue, then 2026 is likely to be another year where we see platinum supply again fall short of demand," the WPIC, which uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, said in a quarterly report.

Total demand is forecast to fall 6% to 7.385 million ounces in 2026, driven mostly by a 540,000-ounce swing in non-bar and coin investment demand as CME-approved warehouse stocks are drawn down amid easing tariff uncertainty and as some exchange-traded fund investors take profits.

For 2025, the WPIC projects jewellery demand to rise 7% to 2.157 million ounces, the highest since 2018, as platinum continues to gain share from gold on the strength of its price discount.

The WPIC expects total platinum demand to fall 5% year-on-year to 7.8 million ounces in 2025, led by 22% weaker industrial demand and a 3% decline in automotive demand as catalysed vehicle production falls.

Above-ground stocks are expected to drop 18%, equivalent to just over four months of global demand to cover the 2025 deficit.

PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND ('000 oz)

SUPPLY	2023	2024	2025f	2026f	25/24 change	26/25 change	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Refined Production:	5606	5777	5510	5622	-5%	2%	1459	1446	1403
South Africa	3957	4133	3945	4055	-5%	3%	1049	1044	1028
Zimbabwe	507	512	493	518	-4%	5%	132	137	119
North America	278	265	203	186	-24%	-8%	59	58	49
Russia	674	677	672	666	-1%	-1%	172	158	156
Other	190	191	198	195	4%	-1%	48	49	51
Change in producer inventory	+14	+10	+0	+0	-100%	N/A	-24	22	0
Total mining supply	5620	5787	5510	5622	-5%	2%	1435	1468	1403

Recycling:	1515	1516	1619	1782	7%	10%	370	432	400
Autocatalyst	1114	1143	1198	1322	5%	10%	282	322	290
Jewellery	331	298	339	373	14%	10%	68	90	89
Industrial	71	76	81	87	7%	8%	20	20	21

Total supply	7135	7303	7129	7404	-2%	4%	1805	1900	1803

DEMAND
Automotive	3208	3109	3020	2915	-3%	-3%	734	781	721
Jewellery	1850	2008	2157	2036	7%	-6%	493	668	471
Industrial:	2389	2423	1902	2076	-22%	9%	547	514	504
Chemical	839	625	575	633	-8%	10%	139	146	126
Petroleum	159	158	181	154	14%	-15%	40	45	45
Electrical	89	93	95	95	2%	-1%	24	24	25
Glass	491	692	177	295	-74%	66%	131	82	91
Medical	292	308	320	332	4%	4%	77	80	80
Hydrogen Stationary	22	41	50	68	20%	36%	11	11	12
Other	497	505	503	499	0%	-1%	125	126	124

Investment:	397	702	742	358	6%	-52%	-230	-64	286
Change in Bars, Coins	322	194	336	462	73%	37%	65	109	63
China Bars ≥ 500g	134	162	186	216	15%	16%	30	47	34
Change in ETF Holdings	-74	296	70	-170	-76%	N/A	-300	97	-169
Change in Stocks Held by Exchanges	14	50	150	-150	200%	N/A	-25	-317	358
Total demand	7844	8243	7821	7385	-5%	-6%	1544	1899	1982

Balance	-710	-939	-692	20	N/A	N/A	260	1	-179

Above Ground Stocks	4819	3879	3187	3207	-18%	1%

Source: Metals Focus 2020–2025F via WPIC.

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