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EU wheat mixed with Argentine crop, US data in focus

ReutersNov 13, 2025 6:15 PM

- Euronext wheat was mixed on Thursday, with competition from an expected bumper Argentine crop weighing on nearby prices while technical adjustments lent support to deferred positions.

Price moves were limited, with grain markets awaiting direction from U.S. government data on Friday following the end of a federal shutdown.

Front-month December wheat BL2Z5 on Euronext settled 0.4% lower at 189.50 euros ($220.99) a metric ton, while second-month March futures BL2H6 ended 0.3% up at 193.75 euros.

The approaching expiry of options against December futures on Monday has prompted participants to shift positions towards March.

While that has lent some support to December as investment funds exit short positions, intensifying competition from Argentina and Russia was dampening export sentiment.

"Argentina competition in our main export markets is having more of an effect than funds rolling their short positions," one futures dealer said.

An increased forecast of Argentina's ongoing harvest reinforced expectations of export competition from the South American producer. The country's Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday said it now projects Argentine production at a record high of 24.5 million tons.

Farm office FranceAgriMer kept unchanged its monthly forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union as it set brisk early-season shipments against stiffening competition from Argentina and Russia.

New crop Argentine 11.5% wheat was again seen as the world's cheapest high-volume origin at $210-$212 a ton free on board (FOB) for December shipment.

French, Russian, Ukrainian and Romanian 11.5% protein wheat were all quoted in a similar range at $227-$230 a ton FOB for November/December shipment, traders said.

A rise in the euro EUR=, which hit a two-week high against the dollar, has also dented western European export prospects.

“West EU and Black Sea prices are similar so the exchange rate is watched closely,” a German trader said.

An increased estimate of this year's EU soft wheat crop by commodity data firm Expana, which pegged the harvest at a record 136.8 million tons, also underscored abundant supply in major export zones.

Chicago wheat Wv1 edged down as the market braced for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's first supply and demand report since September, due to be published on Friday along with a backlog of daily export sales announcements.

The daily export sales may provide confirmation of initial Chinese purchases of U.S. crops following a trade truce with Washington in late October.

($1 = 0.8575 euros)

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