US natural gas futures steady as market takes breather

ReutersNov 12, 2025 3:20 PM

December contract
Gas demand at 119.2 bcfd this week versus 108.6 bcfd last week, LSEG says
LSEG forecast 252 HDDs over two weeks, up from 228, indicating stronger heating demand

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Nov 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Wednesday, pausing after a sharp rally to an eight-month high earlier, as traders weighed mild late-November forecasts against surging export demand and the prospect of colder weather in early December.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were steady at $4.56 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:39 a.m. EST (1428 GMT). The contract had earlier climbed to a session high of $4.582, its highest since March 11.

The recent rally has kept the front-month contract in technically overbought territory for a 10th straight session.

"The recent run-up was partly driven by options sellers covering short positions around the $4.50 mark, and we're now seeing some mild profit-taking," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, adding that prices remain "slightly above fundamental support" with continued strength near $4.50.

The market is watching weather models that point to a brief warm spell in late November followed by a potential shift to colder conditions in early December, which could lift gas demand, Cunningham said.

Financial company LSEG expects average gas demand across the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to climb to 119.2 bcfd this week and 118.0 bcfd next week, up from 108.6 bcfd last week, as colder weather drives higher consumption.

LSEG estimated 252 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 228 estimated on Tuesday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

"The gas market is selling off on what appears to be profit-taking following an early morning test of yesterday's multi-month high. It is becoming increasingly apparent that a significant portion of this month's upside price acceleration has been fueled by a record pace of export activity with the associated increase in feedgas demand boosting values at a strong pace," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

"Production gains that have also approached a record pace have thus far been able to provide only a partial offset," Ritterbusch added.

Meanwhile, global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, departing from previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels following U.S. criticism about its climate focus.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose early on Wednesday as forecasts for colder weather increased demand. NG/EU

	Week ended Nov 7 Forecast	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Year ago Nov 7	Five-year average Nov 7
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+33	+33	+45	+25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,948	3,915	3,966	3,788
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+4.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.54	4.30	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.87	10.68	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.13	11.15	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	252	228	211	255	254
U.S. GFS CDDs	15	16	8	10	8
U.S. GFS TDDs	267	244	219	265	262

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.1	109.5	109.6	101.3	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.1	8.3	8.1	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.2	117.8	117.7	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.7	2.6	2.6	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.2	6.2	6.5	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.5	18.3	18.2	12.8	12.2
U.S. Commercial	9.1	11.8	11.7	7.9	11.0
U.S. Residential	12.4	17.6	17.9	10.4	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	29.4	30.7	29.4	34.5	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.6	24.2	23.8	22.7	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.5	2.4	2.2	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	82.2	92.2	90.7	83.1	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	108.6	119.2	118.0	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	88	89	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	89	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 14	Week ended Nov 7	2024	2023	2022
Wind	14	15	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	42	41	38
Coal	17	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	NA	3.80	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	NA	3.44	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	NA	3.51	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	NA	3.17	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	NA	3.35	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	NA	6.42	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	NA	3.90	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	NA	-0.50	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	NA	1.12	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	66.39	75.28	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	58.14	91.08	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	NA	46.15	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	NA	38.25	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	46.00	43.48	30.01	31.30	58.87

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