US natgas futures pull back on milder weather forecast after hitting eight-month peak

ReutersNov 10, 2025 3:25 PM

December contract
Waha Hub prices remain in negative territory for fifth straight session
Gas demand at 119.3 bcfd this week versus 108.6 bcfd last week, LSEG says

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Nov 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged down after climbing to an eight-month peak on Monday, as signs that a blast of cold weather may fade next week prompted some traders to pare back bullish positions despite firm LNG export flows.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.6 cents, or 0.6%, at $4.29 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:37 a.m. EST (1437 GMT). The contract had earlier climbed to $4.51 in the session, its highest level since March 11.

The price increase kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for an eighth straight day.

Analysts said the rally could fade if the cold snap proves short-lived, with forecasts showing temperatures moderating again next week.

"The market is reacting to this early burst of cold, and that's what pushed prices up to these recent highs," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.

"LNG exports have helped raise the floor for prices, but the weather drive may not have a lot of staying power. If temperatures ease in the next week or two, we could see some of these gains unwind."

In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for a fifth session in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

"Some unexpectedly strong export activity has likely conjured up images of additional strong gains later this year and into next as additional LNG infrastructure is completed at a time when several overseas customers are currently seeing storage levels a bit below last year amid continued uncertainties regarding Russian supply availability," analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Venture Global VG.N reported on Monday that it swung to a profit in the third quarter as record liquefied natural gas exports and a flurry of new long-term supply deals boosted earnings.

Dutch and British power prices were mixed on Monday, reflecting forecasts of a faster return to cooler weather that would lift gas demand for heating, while the next few days are still being pressured from warmer-than-normal and windy weather. NG/EU

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG estimated 246 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, compared with 236 estimated on Friday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump to 119.3 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd last week on colder weather, before easing to 115.3 bcfd as temperatures moderate.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.7 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months.

	Week ended Nov 7 Forecast	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Year ago Nov 7	Five-year average Nov 7
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+33	+33	+45	+25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,948	3,915	3,966	3,788
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+4.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.43	4.33	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.65	10.62	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.13	11.16	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	246	236	198	248	246
U.S. GFS CDDs	11	18	11	11	9
U.S. GFS TDDs	257	254	209	259	255

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.8	109.2	108.8	101.3	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.1	8.1	8.0	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	116.9	117.3	116.8	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.7	2.6	2.6	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.2	6.3	6.5	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.5	18.3	18.1	12.8	12.2
U.S. Commercial	9.1	12.1	11.2	7.9	11.0
U.S. Residential	12.4	18.1	17.1	10.4	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	29.4	29.8	28.3	34.5	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.6	24.3	23.6	22.7	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.5	2.3	2.2	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	82.2	92.2	88.0	83.1	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	108.6	119.3	115.3	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	93	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	88	88	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	89	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 14	Week ended Nov 7	2024	2023	2022
Wind	14	15	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	36	36	42	41	38
Coal	16	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	21	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.76	3.71	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.85	2.93	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.84	2.98	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.91	3.00	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.39	3.17	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.70	3.20	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	2.86	3.34	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.78	-0.20	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.88	1.45	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	66.17	53.77	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	78.18	50.77	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	37.30	33.92	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	29.14	18.80	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	38.25	25.99	30.01	31.30	58.87

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