Vistra Q3 revenue misses estimates, narrows FY forecast

Overview

• Vistra Q3 revenue missed analyst expectations, adjusted EBITDA exceeded estimates

• Vistra narrowed 2025 guidance and initiated 2026 guidance, reflecting strategic adjustments

• Company announced $1.0 bln share repurchase authorization and acquisition of gas plants

Outlook

• Vistra narrows 2025 EBITDA guidance to $5.7 bln-$5.9 bln

• Vistra initiates 2026 EBITDA guidance of $6.8 bln-$7.6 bln

Result Drivers

• NATURAL GAS PLANT ACQUISITION - Vistra completed acquisition of seven natural gas plants, adding 2,600 MW of capacity

• NEW POWER UNITS - Plans to build two new natural gas power units totaling 860 MW in West Texas to meet growing power needs

• NUCLEAR PPA - 20-year power purchase agreement for 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant expected to support continued operations

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 19 "strong buy" or "buy", 2 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the electric utilities peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Vistra Corp is $232.00, about 18.4% above its November 5 closing price of $189.39

• The stock recently traded at 23 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 28 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nPn3PGJD4a

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact RefinitivNewsSupport@thomsonreuters.com.