US natural gas futures fall 3% on record output, mild weather forecasts

ReutersNov 5, 2025 7:47 PM

Gas output hits record highs, storage levels above average
Waha Hub prices remain in negative territory due to pipeline constraints
Mild weather forecast to limit heating demand through mid-November

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Wednesday on record output so far this month, ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mostly mild weather that should keep heating demand lower than normal through late November.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.1 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $4.232 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since March 11 for a second day in a row.

Despite the price decline, the front-month remained in technically overbought territory for a fifth straight day for the first time since October 2024.

Traders noted that prices declined despite record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants so far this month and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a second day in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

It was the 24th time Waha prices have dropped below zero this year and compares with an average of $1.34 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).

Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through November 20, which should limit heating demand.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 108.3 bcfd this week to 118.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while its forecast for next week was higher.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 17.4 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.

The United States became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Around the world, gas prices traded near $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Week ended Oct 24 Actual	Year ago Oct 31	Five-year average Oct 31
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+32	+74	+68	+42
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,914	3,882	3,921	3,753
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.3%	+4.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.25	4.34	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.74	10.89	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.19	11.15	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	239	238	176	249	256
U.S. GFS CDDs	15	16	32	17	13
U.S. GFS TDDs	254	254	208	266	269

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.6	108.9	109.0	101.3	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.6	8.0	7.8	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	115.2	116.9	116.9	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.2	2.7	2.8	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.1	6.6	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.8	17.6	17.4	12.8	12.2
U.S. Commercial	8.6	9.2	11.9	7.9	11.0
U.S. Residential	11.5	12.5	18.0	10.4	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	32.4	29.1	29.7	34.5	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.4	23.5	24.2	22.7	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.2	2.4	2.2	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	83.7	82.0	91.8	83.1	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	109.2	108.3	118.6	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	96	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	89	91	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	89	91	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 7	Week ended Oct 31	2024	2023	2022
Wind	13	12	11	10	11
Solar	7	6	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	40	42	41	38
Coal	16	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	19	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.35	3.37	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.84	2.80	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.44	3.75	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.81	2.74	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.12	3.02	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.16	3.11	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.92	3.68	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.62	-0.25	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.50	1.44	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	50.13	43.20	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	46.37	54.53	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	36.74	40.80	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	36.56	39.36	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	37.69	36.73	30.01	31.30	58.87

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